Australian Retail Sales jump but Aussie dips

The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6491, down 0.26% on the day.

Australia’s Retail Sales rise to 0.6%

Australian events started the week on a strong note, as retail sales were higher than expected. October retail sales jumped 3.4% y/y in October, up sharply from the September gain of 1.2%. Monthly, retail sales climbed 0.6%, compared to 0.1% in September.

Retail sales have accelerated for three successive months as consumers are feeling more optimistic, with expectations that the central bank’s next move will be a rate cut. Retailers have been offering discounts ahead of the holiday season which contributed to a stronger than usual retail sales for October. Ironically, the strong retail sales report will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates.

The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for over a year and has sounded hawkish about rate policy, saying that a rate hike remains on the table. The markets aren’t buying it and expect the next move to be a hike, likely in mid-2025. The RBA meets on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to stay on the sidelines and hold rates.

Inflation has been on the decline in recent months but the RBA has warned that underlying inflation remains too high. In October, headline inflation was unchanged at 2.1%, the lowest level since 2021and around the midpoint of the RBA’s target of 1%-3%. The trimmed mean rate, an indicator of underlying inflation, accelerated to 3.5% in October, up from 3.2% a month earlier.

AUD/USD technical

• AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6506. Next, there is resistance at 0.6485.

• 0.6533 and 0.6554 are the next resistance lines.