OzForex Research
OzForex Foreign Exchange
AUD - Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar fell through trade on Thursday, slipping back below short-term resistance at 0.7150 to touch intraday lows at 0.7117. Having touched 0.7170, a three-month high, earlier in the week the AUD gave up gains as investors sort to take profit while the USD found support in stronger than anticipated PPI and labour market data.
Having pushed through resistance on Wednesday the AUD appeared poised to make a run toward 0.72 US cents yet investors appeared reluctant in extending upside moves as domestic pressures and expectations of a future rate adjustment weigh on upside momentum.
Attentions today now turn to the RBA Financial Stability Review and Chinese Trade Balance data for direction into the weekly close. Strength across Chinese trade data could help foster a run back toward resistance while softness will weigh heavy on global growth concerns and could force the AUD back below 0.71 U.S Cents.
Key Movers
The US dollar advanced against most major counterparts on Thursday as labour market strength and improved PPI data assuaged investors’ concerns the economy is headed for a sharp slowdown. Unemployment claims fell to a near 50-year low last week, bolstering confidence in the labour market, while Producer Prices grew at their fastest pace in 5 months easing pressure on the Fed and downgrading the likelihood of a cut rates through the later half of the year. The dollar index moved back through 97 to trade at 97.17 at time of writing.
Sterling fell through trade on Thursday as investors grappled with the ramifications of a delay to the Brexit processes of up to six months. At an emergency summit EU leaders granted the UK a Brexit extension, postponing the official divorce date until October 31. The pound fell through 1.31 to touch intraday lows at 1.3053 while one-month volatility plunged to its lowest level since August. The extension and dip in implied volatility suggest Sterling will maintain recent ranges and continue to bounce between 1.29 and 1.32 as markets await clarity on when and how Britain will extricate itself from Europe.
Expected Ranges
AUD/USD: 0.7080 - 0.7170 ▼
AUD/EUR: 0.6280 - 0.6380 ▼
GBP/AUD: 1.8180 - 1.8580 ▲
AUD/NZD: 1.0520 - 1.0620 ▲
AUD/CAD: 0.9475 - 0.9575 ▲
IMPORTANT: This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Oz Forex Foreign Exchange makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites. Please read our Product Disclosure Statement and our Financial Services Guide.
Regulated in Australia by ASIC (AFS Licence number 226 484)
© 2010 Copyright Oz Forex Foreign Exchange Pty Ltd ABN 65 092-375-703
OzForex Foreign Exchange Services
Member of FOS (Financial Ombudsman Service)
Full Member of AFMA (Australian Financial Markets Association)
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.