Aussie dollar weaker ahead of RBA minutes

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar opens weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, falling to a multi-monthly low of 0.6847 on the back of fresh headlines indicating that India is imposing tariffs on US goods and amid fears trade tension will continue to hurt the Chinese economy. Quiet day locally yesterday with no scheduled releases. Looking ahead today and all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes of its latest policy meeting which will shed some light over policymakers' decision to cut rates. While a July rate cut looking unlikely at this stage financial markets have fully priced in two more 0.25 percentage point rate cuts by February next year in a move that would take the official cash rate down to 0.75 per cent. Today we will also see the release of Q1 House Price Index, seen down by 1.6% in the three months to March.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6853. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6820 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6900.

Key Movers

The U.S. dollar was roughly unchanged on Monday with focus firmly directed towards the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy update on Wednesday with expectations the U.S. Federal reserve will keep official cash rates on hold at 2.5 per cent. However, on the back of slow jobs growth in May bets for monetary easing at its July meeting remain elevated, with markets pricing in a 67.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut. On the data front in the US last night we saw the release of the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for the month of June which disappointed with -8.6 in June vs. the previous 17.8 and the expected 10.0. We also saw the release of the NAHB Housing Market Index for the same month which resulted at 64 vs. the expected 67. Looking ahead tonight in the US will see the release of May Housing Starts and Building Permits.

The Great British Pound was among the worst performers against the greenback overnight falling to 1.2552, a level not seen since last January, with the UK's political uncertainty was the main reason behind the decline. Conservative MPs will have another ballot this Tuesday, and the list will be reduced by at least one, with those with less than 32 votes also being removed from the next round of voting. There are no macroeconomic releases scheduled in the UK. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2537. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.2510 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.2605.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6800 - 0.6900 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.8190 - 1.8390 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0450 - 1.0650 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▼