AUDUSD bullish in the near-term after hitting 15-week high

AUD/USD is currently more or less unchanged from the day’s open. Yesterday it recorded a fifteen-week high of 0.7740.

Looking at the Ichimoku analysis, the positive alignment when the Tenkan-sen line (red) crossed the Kijun-sen (blue) in mid-January is still in place. This bullish short-term signal is reinforced by the RSI indicator, which is at currently at 64, well above the 50 neutral level.

On the upside, yesterday’s high (0.7740) is expected to provide resistance. A successful break above it would eye the November 8 ten-month high of 0.7777 as another important resistance level. A break above this mark could potentially lead to a more sustained rally (especially if 0.78, a key level in the past, fails to hold as well).

On the downside, the current level of the Tenkan-sen at 0.7679 is likely to act as support (note that this is around a congested area in the recent past). If it is challenged and fails to hold, focus would shift to 0.7616, the point where Kijun-sen is at the moment, as another support level.

Looking at the medium-term outlook, the pair recorded a bearish cross on December 19 when the 50-day moving average (MA) moved below the 200-day one. However, the upward trend since late December that led to the price crossing above both MAs, combined with prices significantly above the cloud, are setting a neutral to bullish medium-term picture (a note of caution for an overextended rally though).

Overall, the short-term sentiment is bullish and the medium-term is neutral to bullish.