The AUD/USD pair has halted its nearly continuous seven-day decline, stabilising around 0.6730 on Thursday. This level marks the monthly low for the Australian dollar, which has faced significant pressures lately due to a strengthening US dollar and uncertainties in China, Australia's largest trading partner.
Market influences and economic indicators
The recent US jobs report and the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes have led investors to reassess their expectations for future US rate cuts, affecting the currency pair. Additionally, no new stimulus measures have been announced in China, impacting sentiment, given that earlier stimulative actions are still not fully reflected in the economic performance.
In Australia, inflation expectations have decreased to a three-year low of 4% in October, providing a somewhat positive signal. However, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest meeting revealed discussions around both potential rate cuts and hikes, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The RBA concluded that the current interest rate appropriately balances the risks associated with inflation and labour market conditions.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair recently completed a downward wave to 0.6707 and is now forming a consolidation range above this level. If the pair breaks downwards, it could target a further decline to 0.6682. Conversely, an upward break might lead to a corrective move towards 0.6796. After this correction, the downward trend could continue towards 0.6655. The MACD indicator supports a bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.
On the hourly chart, the pair is consolidating around 0.6734. An upward breakout could lead to a rise towards 0.6815. Following this, a new downward phase could begin, potentially reaching 0.6710. If this level is breached, the decline could extend towards 0.6682. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and poised to move downwards, aligns with this potential downward trajectory.
Conclusion
Investors and traders should closely monitor further developments from both the Federal Reserve and the RBA, as well as any new economic data from China, which could significantly influence the direction of the AUD/USD pair. The complex interplay of US monetary policy expectations, Chinese economic actions, and domestic Australian economic indicators will likely continue to drive volatility in the currency pair.
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