AUD/USD Forecast: Upbeat Australian data and equities saved the day

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.7087

European central banks’ decisions provided an unexpected boost to the US Dollar.
The positive tone of global indexes limited AUD/USD intraday decline.
AUD/USD eased from its recent peaks, but further slides seem unclear.

The AUD/USD pair trades at around 0.7080, easing from a fresh multi-month high of 0.7157. The US Dollar trimmed its post-Fed losses amid the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). The Greenback advanced despite easing US government bond yields and the mostly positive tone of equities, as the European central banks disappointed market players, boosting demand for the American currency.

On the one hand, the ECB hiked rates by 50 bps and anticipated an equal one for March. President Christine Lagarde said that after that, it will be a meeting-by-meeting decision that will depend on macroeconomic data. The BoE also hiked by 50 bps but hinted at a better economic perspective than previously suspected. Speculative interest rushed to price in a slower pace of tightening or a potential pivot.

Wall Street opened with substantial gains, led by encouraging Tesla results. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P500 spent the day in the green, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled to advance, posting a modest intraday slide.

Meanwhile, Australian data released at the beginning of the day came in better-than-anticipated. Building Permits were up 18.5% MoM in December, recovering from an 8.8% decline in the previous month and well above the 1% anticipated by the market. Early on Friday, Australia will publish the AIG Performance of Construction Index and the S&P Global Services PMI for January and December Home Loans.

Ahead of the weekly close, the United States will publish the January Nonfarm Payrolls report, with the market anticipating the creation of 185K new job positions and an unemployment rate of 3.6%.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair daily chart shows that technical indicators ease within positive levels, reflecting the ongoing decline rather than anticipating a bearish continuation. At the same time, the pair is developing above a firmly bullish 20 SMA, which extended its advance above directionless longer ones. The mentioned 20 SMA stands around 0.7000, reinforcing the static support area.

In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of a downward extension seems limited. The pair is seesawing around a flat 20 SMA, although the longer ones maintain their upward slopes below it. The Momentum indicator eased modestly from its weekly peak but lacks bearish strength, while the RSI turned flat within neutral levels. A relevant near-term support level comes at 0.7030, with a break below favoring additional declines.

Support levels: 0.7070 0.7030 0.6995

Resistance levels: 0.7110 0.7145 0.7190

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD bounces off multi-month low, nears 0.6900

AUD/USD edges higher toward 0.6900 in the Asian session on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses to its lowest level since March as the US Dollar stalls the hot US CPI-inspired rally amid hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. Meanwhile, hawkish comments from FOMC members have almost confirmed another December rate hike, which favors USD bulls and should cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY remains capped below 159.00 amid looming intervention risks

USD/JPY struggles to build on the previous day’s strong gains to a near one-month top as intervention risk supports the Japanese Yen while hopes of a US-Iran peace deal cap the safe-haven US Dollar. That keeps the pair's upside limited below 159.00, for now.

Gold puts the $4,000 mark to the test

Gold now accelerates its daily correction, challenging the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s continuation of the downward trend comes against the backdrop of a robust performance of the US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields across the board and rising bets of extra rate hikes by the Fed.

Pump.fun Price Forecast: PUMP rises despite subdued retail demand

Pump.fun (PUMP) gains momentum on Wednesday, trading at $0.0036. The meme coin launchpad native token is up over 2% on the day, after testing lows around $0.0035. More broadly, the technical picture remains bearish, with key indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stuck in negative territory.

Ten questions for China in 2027

2026 has been a year of slowing growth and increasing divergence within China's economy. We saw the gap between external and domestic demand, as well as between the new economy and the old economy, widen significantly. Here, we look ahead to the key questions facing China in 2027.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.