AUD/USD Forecast: Slightly bullish, Aussie to strengthen above 0.6450
AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6431
- Australian employment data came in above expectations but offered limited support to the Aussie.
- The US Dollar remains firm, helped by US data.
- The AUD/USD rose modestly, supported by risk appetite; the Aussie needs to consolidate above 0.6450.
The AUD/USD pair rose to weekly highs at 0.6459 but then pulled back below 0.6450. The combination of a strong US Dollar and risk aversion kept the pair range-bound.
Employment in Australia rose by 64.9K in August, surpassing expectations of 23K. July's numbers were also revised higher. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.7% as expected. After this data release, the Aussie received a modest boost. However, these numbers are unlikely to change the current outlook for interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep rates unchanged at their next meetings.
The Australian Dollar benefited on Thursday from increased risk appetite. Stocks on Wall Street rose after the European Central Bank meeting and positive US economic data. If the positive mood remains in place, it could boost AUD/USD above 0.6450. On the contrary, a reversal would make it vulnerable, exposing monthly lows.
In the US, data showed that Initial Jobless Claims edged higher by less than expected in the week ending September 9, reaching 220K. Retail Sales rose more than anticipated by 0.6% in August, surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. The Producer Price Index advanced 0.7% in August, with the annual rate rising from 0.8% in July to 1.6% in August. These figures provided an impulse to US yields and the overall strength of the US Dollar, although the rebound in commodity prices and risk appetite limited it. Despite these figures, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold next week.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
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The AUD/USD rose on Thursday but failed to consolidate above 0.6450. The main trend is still downwards, but the pair presents positive signs of bullish Momentum in the daily chart, with Momentum starting to turn to the upside. However, it is still unable to move away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The key support areas are 0.6400 and 0.6350.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to move with a bullish bias. The price remains above the 20-period SMA, so a test of the 0.6450 area ahead of the Asian session seems likely. The pair must break and hold above this level to strengthen the bullish outlook. The immediate support stands at 0.6420, with a break lower exposing 0.6400. A slide below would expose the pair to further losses.
Support levels: 0.6420 0.6400 0.6355
Resistance levels: 0.6455 0.6475 0.6500
Author
Matías Salord
FXStreet
Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.
