AUD/USD Forecast: More consolidation likely ahead of NFP

Matías Salord FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6475

The AUD/USD pair continues to trade sideways, unable to break firmly above 0.6500.
The Aussie remained steady following Chinese and US data.
The US Dollar posted mixed results after consumer inflation data, ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.

The AUD/USD posted another close around 0.6470. The pair is expected to continue consolidating ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, remaining supported above the 20-day Simple Moving Average with a bullish bias.

In Australia, private capital expenditure rose 2.8% during the second quarter, surpassing expectations of 1.2%. Chinese data came in mixed, with an unexpected improvement in the Manufacturing PMI and a moderate decline in the Services PMI. The Australian Dollar benefited slightly from this data. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release on Friday.

The AUD/USD briefly peaked above 0.6500 following Chinese and Australian data but failed to hold above that level. It pulled back to 0.6460 after the release of US economic figures, which showed a 4.2% increase in the annual Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, in line with expectations. Personal income rose 0.2% in July, below the expected 0.3%, while Personal Spending gained 0.8%, surpassing the market consensus of 0.6%. The Chicago PMI surprised with an increase to 48.7 in August from 42.8.

The US Dollar initially climbed modestly after the numbers were released but later lost momentum. The focus now shifts to Friday's US official employment report, which includes Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is also due for release. These numbers will be critical for USD dynamics.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD is heading towards another daily close near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 0.6470 area. The positive aspect is that it continues to trade above the mentioned SMA, while the negative factor for the Aussie is the recent rejection from above 0.6500. For the pair to see further gains, it needs to stay above that level.

On the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD maintains a bullish bias and is supported by the 20 and 55-SMA. Another test of the 0.6500 level is likely to stay above 0.6455. A decline below 0.6440 would change the short-term bias to bearish, potentially leading to a downward move towards the 0.6420 level.

Support levels: 0.6455 0.6425 0.6380

Resistance levels: 0.6500 0.6530 0.6555

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

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