AUD/USD Forecast: Investors looking for a reason to sell into fresh 2022 lows

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6274

Australia created just 900 new job positions in September, much worse than anticipated.
US equities provided intraday directional clues to the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD keeps meeting sellers around a critical Fibonacci level at 0.6345.

The AUD/USD pair ended a volatile day with modest gains at around 0.6270, topping at 0.6355, a fresh weekly high. The pair eased at the beginning of the day amid the broad greenback’s strength and a mixed Australian employment report. The country created just 900 new job positions in September, well below the 25,000 expected.

On a positive note, part-time jobs decreased by 12,400, while full-time ones were up by 13,300. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5% as expected, alongside the participation rate at 66.6%. Also, in Q3, NAB’s Business Confidence improved by more than anticipated, up to 9 from 5 in Q2.

AUD/USD rallied early in the US session as American indexes surged on the back of solid earnings reports. However, Wall Street gave up most of its intraday gains ahead of the close, triggering a pullback in the pair. Stocks eased as US Treasury yields reached levels that were last seen in 2008. Australia will not publish relevant data on Friday.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair has traded around the current level for most of the week, consolidating not far above the year low at 0.6169. The intraday spike was rejected by sellers aligned around the 23.6% retracement of the September/October slide at 0.6345, a warning for bulls. Technical indicators in the daily chart remain below their midlines, the Momentum aiming higher but the RSI consolidating around 36, suggesting an upcoming leg south. Finally, a firmly bearish 20 SMA stands a handful of pips above the current level, reflecting bears’ control.

For the near term, technical readings in the 4-hour chart point to a downward extension. AUD/USD is currently crossing below its 20 SMA, while technical indicators failed to extend their advances within positive levels and turned south. The pair posted a weekly low of 0.6228, the level to break to confirm further slides ahead.

Support levels: 0.6230 0.6190 0.6150

Resistance levels: 0.6300 0.6345 0.6380

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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