|

AUD/USD Forecast: Holding on higher ground, bullish potential limited

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6128

  • Chinese data surprised to the upside, investors took it with a pinch of salt.
  • Australian final March Manufacturing PMI to be out this Wednesday.
  • AUD/USD holding above the 0.6100 figure, at risk of losing the level.

The AUD/USD pair has fallen to 0.6069 this Tuesday, trimming most of its daily losses ahead of the close to finish the day marginally lower around 0.6130. The pair found temporal support at the beginning of the day on better-than-anticipated Chinese data, as the official March NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 52, bouncing from 35.7 and better than the 45 expected. The Non-Manufacturing PMI for the same month came in at 52.3 from 29.6 and against the 37.8 expected. The numbers seem too optimistic considering where the economy is coming from, and the market took them with a pinch of salt.

During the upcoming Asian session, Australia will release the AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index and the final version of the Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI, both for March.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair is holding on higher ground, although intraday technical readings indicate a limited bullish potential. In the 4-hour chart, it is hovering around its 20 and 100 SMA, with the shortest advancing just above the larger one. Technical indicators have recovered from near their midlines, but remain below their recent highs. The bullish potential will be clearer on a break above 0.6200.

Support levels: 0.6110 0.6070 0.6030

Resistance levels: 0.6160 0.6200 0.6240

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD weakens as US jobs data trims Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index inflation report. 

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1. 

Gold remains on the defensive below two-week top; lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades above the $5,070 level, down just over 0.20% for the day, amid mixed cues.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year. 

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.