AUD/USD Forecast: Easing on broad US Dollar demand

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6376

• Easing global trade tensions backed near-term demand for the US Dollar.
• The US will release the April Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
• AUD/USD extends its consolidative range, key support at 0.6340.

The AUD/USD pair trades near a fresh weekly low posted on Thursday at 0.6365 amid resurgent US Dollar demand. The pair fell despite the positive tone of equities, with stocks and the Greenback backed by optimism about de-escalating global trade tensions.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum hit the wires by saying she had a very positive conversation with United States (US) President Donald Trump, adding they will continue working on trade in the upcoming days. Also, Trump claimed that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is negotiating with “200 nations,” and “has no life,” amid being involved in trade talks. It is worth adding, however, that talks between Beijing and Washington are still to begin.

On the data front, encouraging Australian data was not enough to push the Aussie higher, yet the country reported that the March Trade Balance posted a 6,900 million surplus, with imports declining 2.2% in the month and exports rising by 7.6%. The US, on the other hand, released

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 26 rose by 241K, missing the 224K anticipated, while the April ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), on the contrary, posted 48.7, down from the 49 posted in March, but better than the 48 expected.

Australia will release the Q1 Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales figure on Friday, while the US will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The country is expected to have added 130K new job positions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.2% unchanged from March.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the AUD/USD pair is still in a consolidative phase near its 2025 high at 0.6450. The base of the range comes at 0.6342, April 24 low and the immediate support level. The daily chart shows AUD/USD found resistance around a mildly bearish 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at 0.6460, while the 20 and 100 SMAs converge around 0.6290. Technical indicators head lower within positive levels with the Momentum indicator approaching its 100 line.

The 4-hour chart shows the AUD/USD pair develops below a flat 20 SMA at around 0.6400, while the 100 advances below the current level while above the 200 SMA, limiting the downward potential. Finally, technical indicators turned flat just below their midlines, not enough to confirm another leg lower.

Support levels: 0.6390 0.6340 0.6310

Resistance levels: 0.6400 0.6450 0.6490