AUD/USD Forecast: Downward pressure intact despite fresh lows

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6427

Australian Retail Sales are expected to have posted a modest 0.4% advance in August.
Wall Street edged lower despite better-than-anticipated US macroeconomic figures.
AUD/USD reaches lower lows with no signs of sellers giving up.

The AUD/USD pair extended its 2022 decline to a fresh two-year low of 0.6413 after hitting an intraday high of 0.6512, trading a handful of pips above the mentioned low. The pair changed course after Wall Street’s opening and as US indexes sunk, regardless of mildly optimistic US macroeconomic figures.

US Durable Goods Orders were better than anticipated in August, although they remained in contraction territory, down 0.2% in the month. A positive surprise came from Consumer Confidence, as according to CB, it improved further than anticipated in September.

Australia will open its macroeconomic calendar on Wednesday, publishing August Retail Sales. The seasonally adjusted figure is expected to post a modest 0.4% MoM gain following a 1.3% advance in July.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair is oversold according to the daily chart, but there are no signs of easing selling pressure. Technical indicators head firmly lower, with the RSI currently standing at around 25. In the meantime, the 20 SMA accelerated its slide below the longer ones but is roughly 300 pips above the current level, reflecting the strong downward momentum.

Even further, failure to retain early gains and the slump to fresh lows afterward supports a continued decline in the upcoming sessions. The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators have turned flat within oversold levels, somehow hinting at some bearish exhaustion. Nevertheless, and as the pair ends the day near its daily low, the risk remains skewed to the downside.

Support levels: 0.6400 0.6365 0.6320

Resistance levels: 0.6445 0.6490 0.6525

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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