AUD/USD has returned to its losing ways in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6917, down 0.40% on the day. On the fundamentals front, Australian Wage Price Index remained pegged at 0.5%, shy of the estimate of 0.6%. In the U.S., the markets are braced for soft consumer spending numbers. Retail sales is projected slow to 0.2%, down from 1.6% in the previous release. Core retail sales is projected to drop to 0.7%, compared to 1.2% in March. Thursday will be busy, as the U.S. posts building permits, unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

It’s been a rough week for the Australian dollar, which has slipped 1.2% and continues to set new lows in 2019. The currency sagged on Monday after the U.S. slapped new tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods, with China quickly retaliating with tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. products. There was more bad news out of China on Wednesday, as industrial production and retail sales missed expectations. Industrial production fell to 5.4% in April, well short of the estimate of 6.5%. This reading dropped from 8.5% a month earlier. Retail sales also slipped to 7.2%, down from 8.7% in March. This was much lower than the forecast of 8.6%. The Aussie is sensitive to Chinese data, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. AUD/USD has posted four straight losing weeks and the pair remains under strong pressure this week.

Markets stabilise overnight

European open – Trump downplays trade dispute

Dollar Stuck in a Contained Vortex


AUD/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (May 14)

  • 20:30 Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Actual 0.6%

  • 21:30 Australian Wage Price Index. Estimate 0.6%

  • 22:00 Chinese Industrial Production. Estimate 6.5%. Actual 5.4%

  • 22:00 Chinese Retail Sales. Estimate 8.6%. Actual 7.2%

Wednesday (May 15)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%

  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%

  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.2

  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.7%

  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.0%

  • 9:30 US FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.0%

  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 64

  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.0M

  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 36.3B

Thursday (May 16)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.29M

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 220K

  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 10.0

  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.21M


Open: 0.6944 High: 0.6948 Low: 0.6915 Close: 0.6917


AUD/USD Technical













AUD/USD has edged lower in the Asian and European sessions

  • 0.6825 is providing support

  • 0.6968 is the next resistance line

  • Current range: 0.6825 to 0.6968

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6825, 0.6744 and 0.6686

  • Above: 0.6968, 0.7085, 0.7190 and 0.7240

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.

Opinions are the authors — not necessarily OANDA’s, its officers or directors. OANDA’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy apply. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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