AUD/USD analysis: key Chinese and Australian data in the way of a bullish run

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7203

  • Australian inflation and Chinese trade figures to stand out in the Asian session.
  • AUD/USD bullish case will sustain as long as the price holds above 0.7155.

The AUD/USD pair surged Friday t 0.7234, its highest in almost a month, finishing the week with gains above the 0.7200 level. The Aussie rallied despite no actual reasons for such advance, as Chinese inflation figures, released earlier in the day, missed expectations, while equities worldwide had a mixed performance, with European and American ones ending the journey with modest losses. Furthermore, commodities fell in the last trading day of the week, while fears about China's economic slowdown returned following a report indicating that the country may downgrade this year's growth forecast from 6.5% to 6.0-6.5%. The macroeconomic calendar will be critical at the beginning of the week, as Australia will release January Consumer Inflation Expectations, previously at 4.0% and the TD Securities Inflation estimate for December, previously at 0.0%. Also, China will publish its December trade data,  with the focus on imports and exports with Australia and the trade surplus with the US.

The pair advanced for an eighth consecutive day, extending its gains above the 61.8% retracement of the December/January decline at 0.7155, a line in the sand now, as bulls will retain control as long as the price remains above it. In the daily chart, the pair is now developing above its 20 and 100 DMA, both lacking directional strength, while the 200 DMA caps the upside around 0.7275. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart continue advancing within positive levels, maintaining the risk skewed to the upside. In the 4 hours chart, the pair offers a neutral-to-positive stance, as technical indicators lack directional strength but hold into positive ground, while the pair trades above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading firmly up above the larger ones.

Support levels: 0.7190 0.7155 0.7115      

Resistance levels: 0.7250 0.7300 0.7335

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

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