The AUD/JPY pair closed below 84.00 - the lowest daily close since Jun. 23, 2017, strengthening the bear grip, however, the relative strength index (RSI) and the risk reversals indicate potential for a corrective rally.
As of writing, the cross is trading at 83.65 - down 6.08 percent from the Jan. 23 high of 89.07.
Daily chart
- The pair created a "long-tailed" doji candle on Feb. 14, signaling bearish exhaustion. But, the follow-through has been weak as the cross created a bearish outside day candle on Wednesday and fell back below 84.00 yesterday, indicating revival of the bearish move.
- Further, the 5-day moving average (MA) and 10-day MA are trending lower, indicating bearish set up.
So far, the technical picture looks bearish. However, the RSI continues to diverge in the AUD-positive manner. The pair found support yesterday around the weekly 100-MA on 83.58. Also, worth noting - the drop below the weekly 100-MA seen last week as short-lived. So, it could be said that the pair is trading near a strong support at the time when the RSI is showing positive divergence.
AUJP1MRR (one-month 25 delta risk reversals)
Meanwhile, as seen on the chart above, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at 2.1 AUD puts vs. 3.4 AUD puts. It shows the volatility premium of AUD/JPY puts (bearish bets) has dropped sharply since Feb. 12, indicating a weakening of the bearish bias.
View
- The probability of a corrective rally is high.
- That said, only a daily close above the 10-day MA (now seen at 84.37) would confirm a short-term bullish trend reversal and open doors for a sustained move above 84.86 (Feb. 21 high) and towards 85.52 (38.2 percent Fibonaci retracement of Jan. 23 high - Feb. 14 low).
- On the other hand, a daily close below 83.32 (Feb. 14 low) would allow for a deeper sell-off to 81.49 (April 2017 low).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD regains traction, recovers above 1.0700
EUR/USD regained its traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0700 in the American session. The US Dollar struggles to preserve its strength after the data from the US showed that the economy grew at a softer pace than expected in Q1.
GBP/USD returns to 1.2500 area in volatile session
GBP/USD reversed its direction and recovered to 1.2500 after falling to the 1.2450 area earlier in the day. Although markets remain risk-averse, the US Dollar struggles to find demand following the disappointing GDP data.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger
Ripple extends decline to $0.52 on Thursday, wipes out weekly gains. Crypto expert asks Ripple CTO how the stablecoin will benefit the XRP Ledger and native token XRP.
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI, a reliable indicator of the national number and then the BoJ policy announcement. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy in Japan was a rise to 2.90% in March from 2.50%.