Arnaud Masset
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The Australian and New Zealand dollar plunged on heavy selling pressures amid disappointing economic data from China. The Aussie fell almost 1% to 0.7160 against the greenback, the lowest level since early November, while the Kiwie gave up more 1.10% as it reached $0.6780. Overall, investors fled riskier assets and took shelter into safe haven currencies such as the Japanese. Interestingly, the Swiss franc fell 0.25% against the buck, which suggests that the recent slowdown in Switzerland’s economic growth has make the Swissie less attractive.
The last batch of data from the world’s second largest economy came on the soft side, suggesting that the downturn is deepening. The ongoing trade war between the US and China is undoubtedly part of the equation though. Chinese retail sales fell short of expectation as they rose only 8.1%y/y in November, missing estimates of 8.8% and down from 8.6% in October. Similarly, industrial production missed forecast as it came in at 5.4%y/y versus 5.9% previous reading and forecast. Overall, it seems that the combination of faltering market confidence, thanks to Donald Trump relentless attacks on China, together with the country’s ongoing economic slowdown due to the normalisation process that is underway - i.e. shifting toward a domestic generated growth from an export driven one – has hurt significantly China’s industrial sector.
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On the bright side, the conflict between Xi Jinping and The Donald has seen appreciable amelioration lately as the 90-day truce gives both side a breath of fresh air. For now, investors would remain nervous against the backdrop of tumultuous financial market conditions and tense geopolitical situation. It is just not the right time to hold risky assets.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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