Asia’s energy gambit: Trading LNG for tariff relief

Asia’s top trade partners are playing a familiar hand—buy American, buy time. With Trump’s 90-day tariff pause clock ticking toward a July 9 deadline, countries across the region are scrambling to stack up concessions. This time, the ante is U.S. energy, with LNG playing the starring role. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam are ramping up purchases, pledging decades-long import flows in what looks more like geopolitical barter than free-market demand.

It’s smart strategy—on the surface. Trump’s trade team has made it clear: energy buys buy goodwill. LNG from the U.S. ticks every box—high-margin, long-term, politically useful. Taiwan’s CPC has already signed a non-binding letter on the Alaska LNG project, and Japan’s JERA is calling it “promising,” despite cost concerns. South Korea’s even planning a site visit. This is classic Trumpian dealmaking—monetize surplus, force bilateral trade offsets, and extract maximum leverage with a smile.

But the path gets murkier from there.

Autos remain the real thorn. Trump’s complaints about Detroit’s absence from Asia’s streets may be exaggerated, but they’re not baseless. Japan may offer minor regulatory tweaks—preferential inspection, maybe softer crash test standards—but let’s be honest: Tokyo’s not suddenly importing Cadillacs to cruise down Shibuya. Japanese automakers are already embedded in the U.S. industrial base. Trump knows that. The pressure is the point, not the result.

Agriculture is no easier. U.S. officials are gunning for expanded access on rice, corn, and soybeans. Japan and Korea already import heavily, but shifting domestic politics—especially with Japan’s upper house elections looming—make deeper market opening a hard sell. Culture, food security, and farmer resistance all stand in the way. Tariff headlines might move, but the ag lobby never does.

Meanwhile, India is angling for the first big win. Boeing orders are their bargaining chip. With over $67 billion in aircraft commitments across Air India, Akasa, and SpiceJet, New Delhi is making the case that U.S. exports are already flowing—just not always in container ships. If those purchases can be credited against looming tariffs, India may dodge the July hammer. And don’t forget: the India-China rivalry plays well here. Washington likes partners who keep Beijing on edge.

South Korea is playing another angle—shipbuilding. Hyundai’s MOU with Huntington Ingalls smells like industrial diplomacy: get Asian capital into U.S. shipyards, revive a forgotten industry, and call it national security cooperation. In parallel, Taiwan is dangling defense imports as part of its trade offset strategy, pledging more arms purchases to ease its own surplus and deepen alignment with D.C.

What’s emerging is a familiar pattern: the U.S. is turning trade imbalances into multi-sector shopping lists. Energy. Arms. Jets. And Asia, more than Europe, seems willing to play ball—because they know what happens if they don’t. China retaliated. Everyone else is negotiating.

The message from Washington is clear: no more freeloading, no more invisible surpluses. If you run a trade surplus with the U.S., expect a knock at the door—and bring your procurement budget.