A Holly Jolly Price Reprieve

U.S. Review

A Holly Jolly Price Reprieve

• Falling gasoline prices kept consumer price inflation flat in November, supporting real income just in time for the holiday shopping season.
• Holiday sales got off to a solid start in November. Excluding sales at gasoline stations, auto dealers and food service establishments, our holiday sales measure rose 0.8%. Total sales came in more modest at 0.2%, however, due in part to the aforementioned drop in gasoline prices and softer auto sales.
• Industrial production increased 0.6% last month as unseasonably cold weather boosted utilities output. Manufacturing output was flat, and further cooling is likely.

Global Review

Global Outlook Still Murky Amid Policy Uncertainty

• United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no confidence vote, but the path ahead remains murky for the Brexit deal negotiated between her government and the EU.
• Also across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council met for the final time in 2018. As expected, the ECB confirmed the end of its asset purchase program, which the central bank has used over the past few years to bring down interest rates across Europe.
• Finally, Chinese economic data for November were weaker than expected, signaling that Chinese economic growth continues to slow. 

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