5.27% Treasuries keep turning Iran diplomacy into a rates trade

EU mid-market update: 5.27% Treasuries keep turning Iran diplomacy into a rates trade; OpenAI cancels next-gen model ahead of DevDay due to safety concerns; Anthropic asks public markets to inherit $518B of compute commitments.

Notes/observations

- U.S. 10Y yesterday printed 5.27%, its highest since 2007, and oil is again doing part of the tightening for the Fed. Brent is holding around $107/bbl, the 30Y near 5.55%, and the equity response is still surprisingly orderly rather than disorderly. That combination is worse for the economy than another clean 25bp hike because it raises the discount rate and the physical input bill at the same time, without giving the Fed any obvious lever over either. The long end is no longer waiting for a fresh inflation print to move; it is reacting to the possibility that expensive energy persists while Treasury keeps issuing into an already crowded duration market. The uncomfortable part for Washington is that every attempt to cushion consumers—diesel restrictions, tariff carve-outs, direct payments—risks worsening either supply or deficits somewhere else.

- Gilts rallied into UK PM Burnham's speech on a plan that adds little supply and saves little before the Budget. GB Grid sits inside Great British Energy's existing envelope, so no new gilts, but it puts a state-backed rival into connections, where regulated networks earn their growth; a triple-lock review that cannot bite this parliament does nothing for 28th Oct headroom, and consumer credit running clearly hot beside softer mortgage approvals keeps the November hike case intact.

- Equity index is doing an increasingly poor job of describing what the cost of money is doing underneath it. Goldman’s breadth work puts the median S&P 500 constituent roughly 16% below its 52-week high, around the weakest breadth seen since the dot-com period, even while the cap-weighted index remains supported by the handful of AI names still carrying earnings and buyback momentum. Credit has finally begun to join the message: high-yield spreads widened roughly 28bp in three sessions, their largest move since October 2025, while AI-linked investment-grade paper is already clearing materially wider than ordinary corporate debt. Oracle is where those two markets touch. Nvidia can announce another $150B buyback while Oracle’s infrastructure paper sinks below 90 and sovereign yields return to levels last seen before the financial crisis. The narrowness is therefore not merely “Magnificent Seven concentration.” Equity is rewarding the companies that can finance AI from cash while credit is beginning to charge a different price to those that need the bond market, project lenders or SPVs to finish the build. At 5%+ Treasuries, that funding distinction is becoming much more important day by day.

- Trump’s Iran denial is more important than the Axios story it attacks because it removes the easiest face-saving bridge between the two sides in public. Axios reported that Washington was prepared to discuss sanctions relief and access to frozen funds in exchange for concrete nuclear steps; Trump answered that he had offered Iran “NOTHING” and demanded the story be withdrawn. Iranian officials are still telling mediators they want negotiations, while Trump himself says talks are expected to continue. So the diplomacy now has to proceed with both sides denying that the obvious trade is actually the trade: Iran wants blockade/sanctions relief tied to Hormuz; Washington wants nuclear concessions before acknowledging any relief. That leaves mediators doing the substantive bargaining while the principals preserve mutually incompatible public positions. For crude, that is exactly the sort of negotiation structure that keeps a large risk premium alive even when tankers continue to move.

- OpenAI just put a red line through GPT-6.1 Astra while simultaneously cutting the commercial value assigned to the models underneath it. GPT-6.1 will not ship after safety work found regressions serious enough for the company to scrap the release entirely—the first public case of a frontier lab abandoning a major model rather than delaying it around an eval—and it follows the separate pause after OpenAI agents wandered onto U.S. government and UN systems during testing. Tomorrow’s DevDay therefore arrives with an odd hole where the obvious flagship announcement should have been. OpenAI is filling the commercial side of that hole aggressively: GPT-6 Sol and Luna were cut 50% in API price last week, and Codex is reopening the $200 Pro tier while changing usage accounting so the included allowance equates to roughly half the old dollar value of API consumption, without restoring the five-hour cap. That is not simple discounting. OpenAI is conceding that inference dollars per unit of work are going to fall quickly enough that a subscription cannot remain attractive by pretending to bundle an ever-larger pile of expensive tokens; the value has to migrate into uncapped workflow, priority access and features that sit outside the meter altogether. So the frontier and the business model are starting to separate: the model OpenAI most wanted to release has become too risky to sell, while the models it can sell are becoming cheaper faster than the old subscription arithmetic can survive.

- Anthropic’s IPO filing circulated in press finally puts a number on the infrastructure promise that private AI markets have been happy to discuss abstractly: roughly $518B of future cloud and compute commitments. Roughly $34B of the FY25 GAAP loss came from a non-cash revaluation of financing instruments as Anthropic’s own valuation rose; the operating loss was still a very real $8.06B, versus $2.98B a year earlier, on revenue of $4.59B versus $386M. Compute and infrastructure expense alone reached $7.33B, +190%, while the company tells investors to contemplate another $518B of cloud and infrastructure spending in coming years against just $20.28B of cash and short-term investments. The more awkward number is buried farther down: Anthropic’s two largest direct customers each contributed 12% of FY25 revenue, meaning almost a quarter of the business currently rests on two accounts while much of the infrastructure commitment runs for years. That creates a very different underwriting problem from OpenAI. OpenAI’s immediate constraint is whether it can safely release the frontier model it has already built; Anthropic’s is whether a revenue base that expanded twelvefold can become diversified quickly enough to carry infrastructure obligations measured in hundreds of billions. The prospectus then adds the company’s own warning that advanced AI could create “catastrophic or existential” risks. So, public investors are effectively being asked to finance industrial-scale fixed commitments in potentially most dangerous technology ever whose producer simultaneously says the safest response may occasionally be to slow it down. OpenAI can still postpone this accounting conversation by raising privately; Anthropic is about to publish it in S-1.

- OpenAI’s DevDay starts today with a different burden than Meta Connect had last week. Meta could show Muse, glasses and hardware and ask investors to imagine the ecosystem later; OpenAI has already released GPT-6 Sol and Luna, so another model card by itself would feel thin. The live question is whether OpenAI can turn Astra/Sol-level capability into a product surface that competes with Muse-style persistent agents rather than another chat window. The official schedule puts Altman’s keynote at 13:00 ET, and OpenAI’s own developer channels already frame the day around APIs, tools and hands-on products rather than a pure research launch. If the surprise is an always-on agent, autonomous coding/cyber product, or a cheaper high-speed model tier, that would attack Anthropic and Meta at the layer where they currently have the clearer product story.

- Oracle’s equity still trades as though $664B of backlog is the asset; the bond market has started asking what has to exist physically before that backlog can become revenue. Project Jupiter now has all three ingredients credit investors hate in the same structure: $18B of project debt already changing hands around 89–91 cents, a force-majeure notice tied to power/permitting risk, and Oracle itself sitting at S&P’s BBB/Negative—one notch above speculative grade. Oracle says the project remains on schedule, and Blue Owl says contractual obligations are intact, but that reassurance has not restored par because the disputed variable is no longer OpenAI demand; it is whether 2.45GW can be energised on the timetable used when lenders priced the paper. On screens, some Oracle bonds with coupons near 4% are now yielding above 8%, with roughly a third of the stack reportedly through that level and the weakest issues above 8.5%; CDS has widened sharply as well. The dangerous asymmetry is obvious even without assuming a downgrade: Oracle has issued and committed like a hyperscaler while carrying the rating cushion of an industrial borrower. A one-notch move would push it through the investment-grade boundary just as banks are already struggling to distribute Jupiter debt and as AI-related bonds trade materially wider than the broader IG market. Jupiter therefore does more than threaten one New Mexico campus. It gives fixed income a live mark on the proposition that hundreds of billions of “contracted” AI revenue should be capitalised today even when the power plant, pipeline and permit sitting underneath the contract are not yet bankable.

- Ellison’s own balance sheet has quietly become another piece of that Oracle story. Oracle’s proxy shows 413M shares pledged against personal borrowing, up from 346M a year ago; the incremental 67M shares were worth roughly $9.2B at Friday’s close. Oracle says the arrangements pose no material risk and are not margin accounts, and Ellison retains substantial financial capacity. Still, the timing is unusually messy: Oracle is simultaneously carrying enormous AI commitments, its founder is pledging roughly 36% of his Oracle stake, and the Ellison family is helping finance Paramount Skydance’s $111B Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. None of those obligations are the same liability, but they increasingly touch the same equity collateral pool.

- Boeing has managed to turn what looked like a certification-calendar problem back into a software problem. The FAA has delayed 737 MAX-10 certification after a flight-guidance fault that can deny automated guidance in a specific missed-approach/landing sequence, and Boeing shares fell almost 7%. WestJet says it has seen no in-service event and the issue does not appear to remove pilot control, so this is not a replay of MCAS. But MAX-10 economics are extremely sensitive to certification timing because airlines have more than 1,500 orders tied to fleet plans and Boeing’s path toward >800 deliveries and roughly $10B of FCF by 2028 assumes fewer regulatory interruptions, not another one. The damage is therefore mostly calendar and credibility: every month of certification slippage pushes cash receipts out while fixed engineering and production costs remain very present.

- Cross-asset: USTs remain close to Monday's extremes with the 2Y around 4.92–4.94%, 10Y roughly 5.24–5.25% and 30Y around 5.56%; September's two-year selloff is approaching 60bp and the MOVE index is up about 30% this month. Bund 10Y is around 3.6%, France around 4.76%, while JGB 10Y holds near 3.09% and USD/JPY around 157.3 despite renewed Japanese-U.S. language on currency stability. EUR/USD has slipped to roughly 1.134–1.135, near a three-month low, with the dollar still receiving both yield and energy-import support; gold has recovered around 0.7% to ~$4,144 after Monday's sharp selloff. Brent Nov is about $107 versus WTI ~$94, but the more unusual price remains the ~$7.5 Brent Nov/Dec gap even as Saudi export routes reopen. STOXX 600 +0.3% at ~640, led by tech and Legrand's ~6% gain; S&P futures are roughly flat and Nasdaq futures slightly positive after Monday's 0.8%/0.9% cash declines. Asia was softer: Nikkei -0.6%, Kospi -0.3%, Hang Seng about -0.5%, while CSI300 +0.1% and Shanghai +0.2% on Beijing's renewed property/counter-cyclical support pledge; mainland turnover fell to CNY1.41T, the lowest since July 2025 ahead of the National Day closure. BTC is around $84K. The unusual combination remains long-duration yields near cycle highs while European tech rises on a prospective $2T AI IPO: equity is still rewarding the AI revenue/valuation story on the same morning the bond market is charging more for financing its infrastructure.

- Asia closed mixed with Hang Seng underperforming -0.5%. EU indices +0.3-0.9%. US futures -0.1% to +0.1%. Gold +0.7%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.2%, WTI -0.2%; Crypto: BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.4%.

Asia

– Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises cash rate target by 25bps to 4.60%; as expected; reiterates will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed.

– South Korea said to consider regulations related to high-frequency trading - US financial press.

– South Korea Finance Minister: Closely monitoring bond market; to conduct treasury bond buyback if bond yields rise excessively.

– Thailand Cabinet approves FY27 public debt plan that calls for THB 1.26T of new borrowing - press.

– Indonesia parliament passes 2027 budget bill into law (as expected).

– Indonesia plans to acquire 70 additional assault amphibious vehicles from US to strengthen operational capabilities across the archipelago - press.

Europe

– Commerzbank UniCredit plans to 'seize' control of the firm in 'months' [as part of takeover plan] - FT.

– Follow-up: Germany issues EU budget ultimatum - FT.

– Russia govt raises 2026 budget deficit estimate to 3.2% of GDP (RUB7.3T) v 1.6% prior estimate; Raises military spending by 27% for 2027 to RUB17.1T ($202B) - press citing budget documents.

– Dutch police arrest 24-year old man from Amsterdam in investigation of the hacker group Shinyhunters.

Americas

– FAA Administrator: Software issue will delay Boeing 737 Max certification, not clear for how long.

– OpenAI Scraps release of new AI model GPT-6.1 Astra over safety concerns - WSJ [**TTN Note: the first public instance of a frontier lab openly scraps a major model release for safety/alignment reasons].

– Rep Khanna to introduce a bill to regulate artificial intelligence; includes ban on 'recursive technology' - CNBC.

– Nvidia turns to insurers to spread the risk of AI build-out - FT.

Conflict/tensions

– Reportedly US President Trump is open to Iranian sanction relief on for nuclear issue progress - US official speaking to Al-Jazeera.

– Iranian officials said to be pessimistic about reaching a deal with the US before the Midterm elections - press.

– Iran Parliament considering Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) exit bill - Iranian lawmaker.

– Reportedly the Saudi Foreign Minister and US Sec of State Rubio have discussed the region and Yemen - press.

– US Treasury Department Readout: The Secretary urged the Lebanese government to take proactive steps to disrupt Iranian and Hizballah financial networks. Treasury Secretary Bessent also noted the importance of Lebanon advancing key financial sector reforms to restore confidence in Lebanon’s banking system.

– Estonia official: Russia is behind Arson attack on defense maker.

– South Korea Military: Would take appropriate measures regarding the mine blast once final results are available; would consider all options in determining a military response [in response to the DMZ blast that injured two South Korean soldiers on September 21st, 2026] - (update).

Trade/energy

– Italy officials said to be in talks with Q8 on capping fuel pump prices.

– Ireland Energy Min: Any U.S. diesel export ban would have significant impact on EU.

– UAE and Kuwait to increase naphtha exports to Asia without using the Strait of Hormuz - US financial press [update].

– Canada Energy regulator: Approves the Trans Mountain settlement which establishes a new framework for tolls.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

[FTSE +0.28% at 10,714.47, DAX +0.22% at 25,463.70, CAC-40 +0.14% at 8,089.51, IBEX-35 +0.33% at 19,665.01, FTSE MIB +0.69% at 52,115.50, SMI +0.47% at 14,008.00, S&P 500 Futures -0.05%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities traded higher on Tuesday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 0.71%, the FTSE MIB advancing 0.69%, the SMI up 0.47%, the IBEX 35 gaining 0.33%, the FTSE 100 adding 0.28% and the DAX climbing 0.22%, as investors digested a sharp spike in global bond yields to levels last seen in the 2008 financial crisis and elevated crude oil prices. The modest gains occurred against a backdrop of nearly 2% monthly losses for the STOXX 600 that snapped a six-month winning streak, earlier fuelled by an ECB rate hike, hawkish central-bank commentary and AI development slowdown warnings that expanded discount rates and compressed equity multiples. The most notable individual movers were Vesuvius, surging 23.5% after confirming takeover interest, and Close Brothers, rising 10.5% on full-year results that eased motor-finance redress concerns, against BayWa’s 10.5% drop on restructuring-finance dilution fears and Intercos’s 9.5% decline following an overnight discounted shareholder placement. Markets remained cautious amid a Middle East diplomatic stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz and awaited euro-zone consumer confidence data plus remarks from ECB President Lagarde for any signal on the durability of restrictive policy.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Intercos [ICOS.IT] -9.5% (fell following an overnight shareholder placement at a discount).

Healthcare: Medios [ILM1.DE] +3.5% (set 2031 targets for about €3.1bn revenue and €170m adjusted EBITDA, nearly double the rebased 2025 EBITDA), AstraZeneca [AZN.SE] +2.0% (agreed a $2bn strategic equity investment in Summit Therapeutics and submitted a US lung-cancer treatment application), Genfit [GNFT.FR] +1.0% (first-half results showed Iqirvo royalties tripling and extended the company's cash runway beyond 2028), AB Science [AB.FR] -8.0% (reworked its clinical-development plan and delayed restarting two trials following a good-clinical-practice inspection), Eurofins Scientific [ERF.FR] -2.0% (Bernstein downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to €73.90 from €77.20), Pharming [PHARM.NL] -1.0% (CEO Fabrice Chouraqui stepped down immediately following a strategic disagreement with the board).

Technology: ASM International [ASM.NL] +3.5%, ASML [ASML.NL] +3.5%, BE Semiconductor [BESI.NL] +3.0%, Melexis [MELE.BE] +4.0%, STMicroelectronics [STMPA.FR] +2.5% (European semiconductors rallied as Anthropic's prospective valuation above $2tn revived AI-investment and capital-markets optimism).

Telecom: Cellnex [CLNX.ES] -1.5%, Deutsche Telekom [DTE.DE] -1.0%, Tele2 [TEL2B.SE] -1.0% (bond-proxy telecom stocks lagged as elevated sovereign yields pressured long-duration valuations).

Energy: Vestas [VWS.DK] -3.5%, NKT [NKT.DK] -2.5%, Siemens Energy [ENR.DE] -1.0% (rate-sensitive clean-energy and electrification names weakened as long-dated yields remained elevated after the global bond rout).

Consumer staples: Lindt & Sprüngli [LISP.CH] -6.5% (cut its 2026 outlook, prompting further concern over earnings pressure from elevated cocoa costs and pricing).

Industrials / Defence: Vesuvius [VSVS.UK] +23.5% (surged after confirming takeover interest), Legrand [LR.FR] +6.5% (raised its medium-term financial targets at a capital-markets update), Hapag-Lloyd [HLAG.DE] +2.5% (raised FY26 EBITDA guidance to $3.9–4.4bn from $2.7–3.7bn and EBIT guidance to $1.25–1.75bn from $0.1–1.1bn on stronger demand and spot freight rates), ABB [ABBN.CH] +1.5% (electrification peer read-through from Legrand's raised medium-term targets), BayWa [BYW.DE] -10.5% (restructuring-finance terms revived concerns over heavy dilution for existing shareholders), Rheinmetall [RHM.DE] -1.0% (Bernstein cut its price target as part of a more cautious reassessment of European defence valuations), Airbus [AIR.FR] -0.5% (September deliveries are running slower than expected after an A321neo fuselage-quality issue pushed around 20 aircraft into Q4, although FY targets remain unchanged).

Financials: Close Brothers [CBG.UK] +10.5% (full-year results and the capital update eased concerns over motor-finance redress exposure), Julius Baer [BAER.CH] +8.5% (FINMA closed its legacy enforcement case, halved the additional CET1 requirement to CHF250m and opened the way for a potential buyback restart).

Speakers

– (UK) PM Burnham: Today, I'll set out a different path for our country - X post.

– (ES) Spain Energy Min Aagesen: Want EU to consider measures to capture windfall profits from high energy prices.

– (EU) IEA Chief Birol: Europe one of the most exposed regions regarding the diesel market; If there is a need for more strategic reserve releases, we will discuss with our member governments.

– (EU) ECB's Kazimir (acting Slovakia member): Rate hike was unavoidable; Energy prices remain key factor.

– (US) NEC Dir Hassett: Estimates productivity growth right now at ~25%; A lot of our debt is debt we owe ourselves, external debt is maybe around $15T - comments from speech at Economic Club of NY.

– (EU) ECB’s Pereira (Portugal): natural gas price pressures could lift inflation this winter.

– (US) Texas Gov Abbott: expands use of dyed diesel on Texas roads and raises the allowable weight for fuel, agricultural, and timber loads.

– (TR) Turkey President Erdogan: Those that try to harm people's rights through market manipulation will find the govt against them; Turkish capital markets are resilient and will overcome this challenge.

– (US) Fed's Cook (voter): Expect to see continued inflation pressure in coming months; Number and magnitude of future rate adjustments will be informed by data; Labor market appears to be well positioned to handle an increase in rates.

– (US) Fed’s Barkin (non-voter): Low unemployment is a key factor for consumption.

– (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Kotecki: Expect Polish inflation at ~4% in Sep; Could start discussing rate hikes in Oct.

– (US) President Trump: We will win Iran war very soon and gas prices will come tumbling down.

– (IR) Pres. Trump: Denies Axios story that “Trump” offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran; I offered them NOTHING! - Truth Social.

– (IR) Iran Foreign Minister Araqchi: Met with Qatari mediators and discussed ideas that will be shared with the US via the mediators.

– (US) US Secretary of State Rubio: Strait of Hormuz open except for Iranian oil; Iran heading quickly to bankruptcy; Iran economy now is a cataclysm - Fox News.

– (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: Multi-layered Japan-China communication is important; Refrain comment on Japan-China private business group - Tokyo, Japan.

– (JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: Exchanged views on FX trends with Bessent on Friday; Agreed with Bessent to beef up cooperation when asked about phone talks on September 25th, 2026 - Tokyo, Japan.

– (JP) Japan Trade Min Akazawa: We are always open to communicate with China - Tokyo, Japan.

– (PL) Poland Fin Min Domanski: Sees no room to boost budget spending in 2027.

– (AU) Australia Treasurer Chalmers: Today’s interest rate rise was widely expected and anticipated, that doesn’t make it any easier for people.

– (AU) RBA Gov Bullock: Inflationary pressures to persist longer than expected; Board will raise rates again if needed [consistent with the RBA statement] - Post-Rate Decision Press Conference.

Economic data

– (IS) Iceland Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.6% prior.

– (IT) Italy Aug PPI M/M: 3.1% v 3.0% prior; Y/Y: 13.5% v 9.3% prior.

– (EU) Eurozone sept economic confidence: 97.9 V 99.0E; Industrial Confidence: -3.8 v -4.7e; Services Confidence: 6.1 v 6.6e; Consumer Confidence (final): -16.5 v -15.5 advance.

– (PT) Portugal Sept Consumer Confidence: -20.6 v -20.5 prior.

– (UK) Aug M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.5% prior.

– (UK) Aug mortgage approvals: 54.9K V 56.0KE.

– (UK) Aug net consumer credit: £2.5B V £1.9BE; net lending:£4.4B V £4.4BE.

– (TW) Taiwan Aug Monitoring (Leading) Indicator: 41 v 41 prior.

– (IT) Italy July Industrial Sales M/M: 0.6% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.2% prior.

– (TR) Turkey Sept Economic Confidence: 101.3 v 100.6 prior.

– (ES) Spain Aug Adj Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4% prior.

– (ES) Spain Sept preliminary CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 4.9% V 4.6%E.

– (CH) Swiss Sept KOF Leading Indicator: 109.1 v 106.3e.

– (FI) Finland July Final Trade Balance: -€0.7B v -€0.7B prelim.

– (SE) Sweden Sept Consumer Confidence: 102.2 v 98.4 prior.

– (FI) Finland Aug House Price Index M/M: 0.0% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.4% prior.

– (JP) Japan July Final Leading Index CI: 117.7 v 117.9 prelim.

– (NL) Netherlands Sept Producer Confidence Index: 4.2 v 3.7 prior.

– (AU) Australia Aug Household Spending M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.8% v 7.1%e; Excluding fuel spending, total household spending would have fallen by 0.3 per cent.

– (UK) Sept BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5% prior.

Fixed income issuance

– (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells €1.50B vs. €1.25-1.50B indicated range in Apr 2036 floating Rate Bonds (CCTeu).

– (IT) Italy debt agency (TESORO) sells total €6.5b vs. €5.5-6.5b indicated ranbge in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds.

– (SE) Sweden sells total SEK22.5B vs. SEK22.5B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills.

– (UK) DMO sells £4.25B IN 4.875% July 2036 Gitls; AVG yield: 5.383% V 5.155% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.34x v 3.65x prior; tail: 0.5BPS V 0.1BPS prior.

– (JP) Japan sells ¥300b v ¥300b indicated in 40-year JGB bonds; lowest accepted price: 4.1250% v 3.8650% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.10x v 2.82x prior (strongest bid-to-cover ratio since 2020).

– (TH) Thailand Central Bank sells THB60B in 3-month Bills: Avg Yield: 0.97721% v 0.96072% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.13x prior.

– (PH) Philippines Treasury: To offer up to PHP892B of bills and bonds in Q4.

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Sept CPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.0% prior.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Q2 Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR2.55B in 2038, 2039 and 2042 bonds.

- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO).

- 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR).

- 06:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 3-month LTRO tender.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 7.372T prior; M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.8% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug National Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.3% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada July GDP M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior; Aug GDP Advance Estimate M/M: No est v N/A prior.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:00 (US) July FHFA House Price Index M/M: No est v 0.0% prior.

- 09:00 (US) July S&P Cotality House Price Index (20-City) M/M: No est v 0.24% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.10% prior; House Price Index (overall) Y/Y: No est v 1.52% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Aug JOLTS Job Openings: No est v 7.271M prior.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Consumer Confidence: No est v 89.4 prior.

- 10:30 (US) Sept Dallas Fed Services Activity: No est v 4.2 prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 6-Week Bills.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 52-Week Bills.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q2 Current Account Balance: No est v -$1.7B prior.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior; Cyclical Leading Index Change: No est v 0.4% prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Sept Lloyds Business Barometer: No est v 53 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Retail Sales M/M: No est v 2.4% prior (revised from %); Y/Y: No est v 4.0% prior (revised from %); Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.9% prior.

- 20:00 (NZ) New Zealand Sept ANZ Business Confidence: No est v 53.7 prior; Activity Outlook: No est v 48.2 prior.

- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Aug Trade Balance: No est v -$6.0B prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v 10.8% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v 19.8% prior.

- 21:30 (CN) China Sept (Govt Official) Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.8 prior; Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.0 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.5 prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug CPI M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior; CPI Trimmed Mean Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Private Sector Credit M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.4% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Building Approvals M/M: No est v -3.6% prior; Private Sector Houses M/M: No est v -4.2% prior.

- 21:45 (CN) China Sept RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.5 prior; Services PMI: No est v 51.4 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 52.1 prior.

- 22:00 (SG) Singapore Aug M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 5.3% prior.

- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 2-year JGB Bonds.