Weekly Forecast
A dull week ends with the EUR/USD pair surging to a fresh multi-week high, trading around 1.1560 ahead of the close. Optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict dominated the headlines throughout the first half of the week, only to be followed by the usual delays and diluted hopes.
Following a quiet opening to the week, Gold (XAU/USD) gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level since mid-June above $4,300, supported by cooling geopolitical tensions and investors scaling back bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains resilient, trading above $65,000 on Friday, with bulls defending key support despite cautious market sentiment. US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) showed strong inflows through Thursday, pointing to renewed institutional demand.
The geopolitical landscape has remained the almost exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the global markets this week. Against that backdrop, the US Dollar (USD) has been suffering from rising optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement that would not only end the current crisis but also reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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In-Depth Analysis
Prices for the barrel of the American Oil benchmark have fallen sharply as hopes of a US-Iran agreement have resurfaced, but a deeply backwardated Oil curve, tight Cushing stocks and light speculative positioning all warn that the sell-off may have gone too far.
When a major macroeconomic release hits the wires, traders instinctively turn to Treasury yields, the US Dollar (USD), Equity futures or the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge the market's reaction. Increasingly, however, another screen is attracting attention: Prediction markets. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are no longer confined to election betting or niche political forecasts.
