WTI Price Forecast: Retakes $72.00; 23.6% Fibo./200-day EMA holds the key for bulls
- WTI attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s pullback from a multi-week high.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.
- A sustained strength beyond the 23.6% Fibo. is needed to back the case for further gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from the vicinity of a three-week high. The black liquid reclaims the $72.00 mark during the Asian session and remains on track to register weekly gains for the first time in the previous five.
From a technical perspective, the recent recovery move from the lowest level since February, touched last week, faltered near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall earlier this week. Moreover, Crude Oil prices remain below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping a bearish near-term tone amid mixed momentum indicators.
In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive and advances above its signal line, hinting at an ongoing corrective bounce. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 still leans toward weak demand, suggesting rallies could remain capped while Crude Oil prices trade under the 23.6% Fibo. and the 200-day EMA.
Meanwhile, any meaningful upside is likely to face initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibo. level at $75.81, followed by the 200-day EMA at about $77.18, with further barriers at the 38.2% retracement near $81.50 and the 50% level around $86.11. On the downside, the primary structural support is the recent cycle low around $66.60, where a break would expose deeper bearish extension despite the currently improving technical backdrop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
