WTI Price Forecast: Dips to $91.50 as Middle East jitters limit losses
- WTI struggles to capitalize on its recovery gains registered over the past two days.
- The US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for the commodity and limits deeper losses.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing directional bets.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak and stalling the previous day's recovery from the vicinity of a nearly four-week low. The black liquid currently trades near $91.50, down 0.45% for the day, though the downside seems limited amid the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
In the latest developments, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon may soon send a third aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf. Separately, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said several tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would decide very soon whether to blow up Iran and added that the war will end very soon one way or the other. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play and should act as a tailwind for crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the black liquid remains capped by the long-term trend structure, with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at $94.08 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $93.28 sitting overhead. This configuration keeps the near-term bias bearish despite a constructive tone in momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in neutral-positive territory near 53, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays above zero with a positive histogram, hinting at only a modest recovery attempt within a broader corrective phase.
Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 50.0% retracement at $90.59, followed by the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $87.89, which together define a nearby demand zone before deeper levels at $84.06 and $79.18. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $93.28, ahead of the 100-period SMA at $94.08. A more significant bullish extension would require a break of the 23.6% retracement at $96.60 and ultimately the structural high near $101.99 to challenge the prevailing short-term bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
