WTI Price Analysis: WTI price rejected by the 200-day SMA, still poised for weekly gains

WTI bulls are taking profits ahead of the weekend and the price retreated near $75.50.
The price was rejected twice this week by the 200-day SMA at $77.17, and indicators show some weakness.
USD weakness and dovish bets to limit the WTI losses.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Friday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel lost some ground as investors did some profit-taking ahead of the weekend after a three-day winning streak. Still, the black gold is set to close a 2.90% winning week amid USD weakness.

That said, the USD somewhat recovered on Friday but is still vulnerable. The Greenback gained some ground following positive University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Confidence figures. Still, the soft inflation figures reported on Wednesday and Thursday, adding dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed), should limit the USD upside potential.

As for now, investors continue to discount a 25 basis point (bps) hike for the next July Fed meeting but refrain from betting on an additional hike in the rest of 2023. Its worth noticing that higher rates cool down the economy and hence lower the Oil’s demand adding selling pressure to its price.

On the other hand, traders should monitor China’s economic situation, the world’s biggest Oil importer. As economic activity and trade balance data should recently some weakness, it is expected the Chinese government to announce more stimulus measures to support the weakening domestic economy. In that sense, a stronger Chinese economy could boost Oil prices.

WTI Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, the WTI showed a bullish outlook, but indicators show signs of exhaustion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) got rejected at the overbought threshold and prints a negative slope, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printed a decreasing green bar.

Resistance Levels: $77.17 (200-day SMA), $78.00,$81.00.

Support Levels: $74.70, 73.55 (100-day SMA), $71.76 (20-day SMA).

WTI Daily chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price	75.36
Today Daily Change	-1.70
Today Daily Change %	-2.21
Today daily open	77.06

Trends
Daily SMA20	71.6
Daily SMA50	71.47
Daily SMA100	73.59
Daily SMA200	77.07

Levels
Previous Daily High	77.17
Previous Daily Low	75.24
Previous Weekly High	73.85
Previous Weekly Low	69.77
Previous Monthly High	74.36
Previous Monthly Low	66.95
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	76.43
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	75.98
Daily Pivot Point S1	75.81
Daily Pivot Point S2	74.57
Daily Pivot Point S3	73.89
Daily Pivot Point R1	77.74
Daily Pivot Point R2	78.42
Daily Pivot Point R3	79.67

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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