WTI extends the decline to below $63.50 on potential US-Russia meeting
- WTI price trades in negative territory near $63.20 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Officials said Putin would meet Trump in the coming days.
- US crude stockpiles fell by 3.029 million barrels in the week ending August 1, a bigger-than-expected draw.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.20 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI remains on the defensive amid potential US-Russia talks, raising expectations for a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine.
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet in the coming days in what would be the first summit between leaders of the two countries since 2021. A White House official said that Trump could potentially meet with Putin as early as next week. Possible US-Russia talks regarding the Ukraine conflict have tempered concerns about supply disruptions, which weigh on the WTI price.
Furthermore, rising oil output might also undermine the WTI. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) met virtually on Sunday, agreeing to boost oil production by 547K barrels per day (bps) for September. The group began increasing output in April with a modest hike of 138K bpd, followed by larger-than-expected rises of 411K bpd in May, June, and July, 548K bpd in August, and now 547K bpd for September.
"Additional increases in OPEC production remain as the overriding negative consideration, while continued tariff uncertainties are still providing the main argument favoring lower price levels," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
On the other hand, a bigger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories last week might help limit the WTI’s losses. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Stockpiles report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending August 1 fell by 3.029 million barrels, compared to a rise of 7.698 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.1 million barrels.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
