WTI Crude: The monthly chart is telling a bigger story

I’m sharing this monthly WTI chart not for hour‑to‑hour trading decisions, but to highlight the structural shift taking place in Oil. The long‑term picture has been building for months, and the market is finally starting to confirm it.

WTI completed a Double Bottom on the monthly timeframe between April and December 2025 — a formation I highlighted several weeks ago as a major bullish foundation. January then delivered a Reversal Month, signalling that the market was preparing for a broader move higher.

This week, that move finally accelerated.

Key technical developments

• WTI has now broken above the 200‑month moving average, a significant long‑term trend indicator.
• Price is currently edging above the 55‑month moving average at $77.16, reinforcing the shift in momentum.
• From a structural perspective, Oil still has considerable room to the upside, with $88–$89 emerging as the broader long‑term target.

Why the 38.2% Fibonacci level matters

The 38.2% long‑term Fibonacci retracement sits at $81.70, and this level is critical.

Long‑term investors and funds use the monthly Fib structure for entry and exit clarity, especially following a completed Double Bottom.

I expect WTI to gravitate toward $81.70 in the coming weeks.

This is where:

• Profit‑taking will naturally emerge.
• Counter‑trend sellers will step in.
• Momentum will be tested.

A clean break above this level would strengthen the case for the $88–$89 target zone.

Short‑term considerations

Despite the strong momentum:

There is an open gap at $67.85, and markets rarely ignore gaps forever.

Overbought/oversold indicators should be monitored closely.

The $80.00 psychological level will act as a natural magnet and initial cap — traders love round numbers, and positioning often clusters around them.

Bottom line

The long‑term structure in WTI is turning decisively higher.

The Double Bottom, the Reversal Month, and the break above major monthly moving averages all point to a market transitioning into a new phase.