When is the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - also known as the ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT this Thursday. Consensus estimates point a modest pullback in growth to 55.0 for the month of September from the previous month's better-than-expected reading of 56.4.

Meanwhile, US economists at Deutsche Bank are more bearish and expected the index to fall to 54.1. “As a reminder last month this fell to 53.1 and to the lowest since March 2017. Our colleagues note that while this series does not tell us much about the monthly changes in employment, it has historically been a leading indicator of the overall trend in service-sector job growth. So, further deterioration would send a more concerning signal to monetary policymakers about the labour market outlook.”

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -0.70 or +0.63 is likely to be in the range of 21-26 pips in the first 15-minutes and could stretch to around 51-pips in the subsequent 4-hours.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst outlines the technical set-up and offers important levels to trade the EUR/USD pair – “Resistance awaits at 1.0960, which is emerging as a double-top after capping EUR/USD in recent hours and also in late September. It served as support beforehand. Next, we find 1.0995, which provided support in mid-September, and 1.1025, which held it down around the same time.”

“Support awaits at 1.0926, which was a double-bottom in September before EUR/USD crashed to new lows. 1.0905 was the low point on Wednesday and also works as support. The 2019 low of 1.0879 – recorded earlier this week – is the next line to watch,” he added further.

Key Notes

US Service Sector September PMI Preview: How slow is slow?

EUR/USD Forecast: Can US economic and political misery continue propelling it higher? Critical data eyed

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Targets the 21-day SMA at 1.1000 in the near term

About the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that services constitute the largest sector of the US economy and result above 50 should be seen as supportive for the USD.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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