NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds above 0.5700, bears guard 0.5750
- NZD/USD remains bearish despite rebound above 0.5700 figure.
- RSI rises below 50, signaling buyers lack full control.
- Break above 0.5750 exposes 0.5800 and key SMA cluster.
The Kiwi Dollar clears the 0.5700 figure on Friday, clings to gains of over 0.22% against the Greenback after hitting a daily low of 0.5689. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD trades at 0.5709.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The NZD/USD remains technically bearish, even though interest rate probabilities suggest the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could raise rates at least twice. However, in the short term, the leg-up would test an support-trendline-turned resistance at around 0.5750.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising, suggesting buyers are gaining traction, but it remains below the 50-neutral level. Hence, the overall trend is downwards.
For a bullish reversal, the NZD/USD must clear 0.5750, followed by the 0.5800 mark. Above this level, the next resistance is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5821, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.5831, and then the 100-day SMA at 0.5851. Once those levels are cleared, the next resistance is the 0.5900 milestone.
On the flipside, if NZD/USD tumbles below the current low of the day (LOD) at 0.5689, the next support is at 0.5650, followed by 0.5600.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Technical outlook
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
