What is the smart money doing behind the S&P 500? [Video]

Andrew Pancholi Market Timing Report

The index is only part of the picture. Positioning, volatility and seasonality can provide valuable clues about what may come next.

In my latest brief video, I examine:

Smart-money positioning: What is happening beneath the surface of the S&P 500?
The VIX: Some clear signals are emerging—but what are they telling us?
Copper: A topping pattern was developing recently. Has the evidence changed?
Midterm seasonality: We explore a historical setup that, in the analysis presented, has worked on every occasion since 1945. Will this year follow suit?

The key is to assess how these signals fit together.

Which is giving you the clearest signal at present—positioning, volatility or seasonality?

Author

Andrew Pancholi

Market Timing Report

Andrew Pancholi is a world-renowned trading expert specializing in market timing.

AUD/USD stabilizes above two-week low/0.6950 as traders await US election results

AUD/USD edges higher in the Asian session on Wednesday, recovering slightly from a two-week low touched on a less hawkish RBA reaction the previous day. Hopes for Iran diplomacy undermine the safe-haven US Dollar and support the currency pair, though the upside remains capped as traders await US midterm election results.

USD/JPY retreats from three-week top, slips below 158.50 amid intervention risks and softer USD

USD/JPY slides below 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak to hit a near three-week high the previous day, as intervention risks support the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains on the back foot amid hopes for Iran diplomacy, further weighing on the currency pair as traders brace for some volatility surrounding US midterm election results.

Gold consolidates below $3,950 as Fed hike bets counter softer USD ahead of US election results

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from sub-$3,900 levels, oscillating in a range during the Asian session on Wednesday as traders brace for short-term market volatility surrounding US midterm election results. Meanwhile, hopes for Iran diplomacy weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and support bullion, though upside remains capped amid Fed rate hike bets.

Ethereum: US-led selling keeps ETH below $2,309 realized price

Ethereum (ETH) faces pressure near $2,300 on Tuesday as it struggles to recover its realized price. The top altcoin fell below its realized price, or investors' average on-chain cost basis, at $2,309 following the $6.3 billion Binance hack last Thursday.

US Midterms: Can Wall Street rally despite AI debt and credit risks?

Political uncertainty may be coming to an end, but the real question for investors is whether the technology sector can sustain its enormous spending commitments. The US midterm elections are arriving at an interesting moment for financial markets.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.