Aussie slips below 0.7000 as RBA hike fails to offset US election woes

The Aussie Dollar drifts lower against the US Dollar late on Tuesday as the US midterm elections are underway, while progress toward a potential diplomatic exit from the US-Iran war stalls after Iran denied claims it was close to a deal. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6965, down 0.44%.

AUD/USD extends losses as US election uncertainty and stalled Iran peace talks overshadow the RBA’s latest rate increase

As we get closer to the first exit polls of the US midterm elections, the focus is on whether Democrats will gain the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. Additionally, what will US President Donald Trump's response be to the election outcome? Meanwhile, Polymarket sees a 75% chance that the Democrats could win the Senate and a 95% chance that they will be the majority in the House.

In the meantime, in the US-Iran conflict, Washington approved the draft memorandum of understanding presented to Iran by the Qatari delegation. Despite this, a Senior Iranian official said that the US and Iran are far from reaching a deal to end the war.

The US JOLTS job openings rose to 7.5 million, up 4.5% from the previous month's 7.19 million. The report showed that the hire rate rose to 3.4% from 3.3%, while total separations remained unchanged at 3.3%. Other data revealed that Factory Orders exceeded August’s reading of 0.3%, coming in at 1.8% MoM.

On Wednesday, the US economic schedule will feature the release of ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for October.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates to 4.85% a day ago in a 6-3 vote, with Governor Michelle Bullock adopting a more neutral stance, adding that the three dissenters wanted to wait for more data. She acknowledged that she’s not clear on how high rates must be but refrained from providing forward guidance on the future path of interest rates.

Recently, the S&P Global Services PMI in October improved from 47.8 to 48.5.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6964, keeping a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) in the Moving Average Triple around 0.7059. Price remains supported above a series of rising trend lines, with nearby structural demand aligning around the 0.6922 area, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.6 hints at stabilizing but still subdued momentum rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the grouped daily SMAs near 0.7059, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.7198, which caps the broader upside. On the downside, immediate support emerges around the upward-sloping trend-line region near 0.6922, ahead of deeper cushions at 0.6897 and 0.6865, with additional medium-term floors at 0.6833, 0.6673 and the prior break area near 0.6348.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)