USD soft but holding on to recent gains ahead of inflation data – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is trading softly against a narrow set of G10 currencies but holding on to the bulk of its recent gains as we head into Tuesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD trading softly but holding onto bulk of recent gains into CPI data

"The outperformance of SEK, AUD, and NZD would typically be suggestive of risk appetite while the modest gains in havens CHF and JPY are likely more a reflection of stabilization following their spectacular declines on Monday. NOK, MXN, and GBP are seeing similar bounces off of their recent local lows while the EUR and CAD trade flat vs. the USD. Markets appear to be focusing on the US fiscal outlook with the release of a draft plan for President Trump’s $4trn tax cuts (and $1.5trn spending reductions) ahead of the US CPI release at 8:30am ET."

"The broader market’s tone appears neutral, with quiet trading across Asia and Europe as US equity futures consolidate their recent gains. The US 10Y yield is also quietly consolidating its recent climb and trading in a tight range around 4.45% as the 2Y hovers just below 4.00%. Oil prices appear well supported as WTI continues to recover from last week’s OPEC-driven decline, and copper is steady and consolidating around the midpoint of its recent range."

"The price of gold also appears to have found support around its May 1 low, confirming $3200 as an important near-term technical level. Tuesday’s highlight will be the release of US CPI for the month of April, with both headline and core expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% y/y and 2.8% y/y, respectively. There are no Fed speakers scheduled for Tuesday’s NA session, with headline risk limited to President Trump’s trip to the Middle East and his arrival in Saudi Arabia for a state visit."