- USD/NOK is down for a third consecutive day, trading at 11.142
- Ahead of the Fed's decision on Wednesday, the US fell to a six-day low.
- The Norges Bank announces its decision on Thursday and is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%.
- The US will report key labour market data on Thursday and Friday.
In Monday's session, the USD/NOK is down, driven by a broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, which falls on the back of a positive market environment and investors taking profits after last week's gains. Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, which would set the pair's pace in the upcoming sessions. On the NOK's side, the Norges Bank meeting ends on Thursday with no rate hikes priced in
Recently, the USD strengthened over the NOK mainly due to rising US Treasury yields and strong economic reports, including a preliminary estimate of the US Q3 preliminary estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which grew at an annualised rate of more than 4%. Nevertheless, the prospects of a 25 basis point increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, continue to be low, potentially tempering any considerable advancement for the USD. For Wednesday's meeting, a pause is largely priced in, but Chair Powell's tone will be closely looked upon for investors to continue modelling their expectations.
Furthermore, the US will report October's Nonfarm Payrolls, an important labour market indicator closely monitored by the Fed, which could also impact the pair's price dynamics.
On the other hand, investors will monitor the Norges Bank's stance on Thursday. In September, Governor Bache stated that "There will likely be an additional hike in December" so in case the bank gives more clues on their plans for the December meeting, the NOK's could gain further ground over the US Dollar.
USD/NOK Levels to watch
Evaluating the daily chart, signs of bullish exhaustion for USD/NOK are observed, contributing to a neutral to bearish technical stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) displays a negative slope in the bullish territory, hinting at a potential shift in momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) prints shorter green bars.
Support levels: 11.100, 11.083, 11.023 (20-day SMA),
Resistance levels: 11.200, 11.235, 11.276.
USD/NOK Daily Chart
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