|

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Trading in a messy range until a break one way or another

  • USD/JPY is stuck moving sideways on the 4-hour Chart used to analyze the short-term trend. 
  • It needs to break higher or lower to confirm directionality – otherwise it will continue oscillating. 

USD/JPY has been trading in a messy range all through August with little clear direction. 

The pair is likely in a “sideways” trend therefore, which will probably continue until a breakout in one direction or another confirms a directional trend. 

USD/JPY 4-hour Chart


 

A break above 146.91 would provide a sign that bulls are getting the upper hand and probably lead to a move up to 147.85, then perhaps the August highs at around 149.39. 

To the downside, a break below 143.45 (August 26 low) would confirm more downside, probably to around the 141.70s where the August lows are. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is above its signal line and rising, supporting a very mildly bullish outlook, although it has not quite broken above zero yet, so it remains unconfirmed.

Author

Joaquin Monfort

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

More from Joaquin Monfort
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD loses momentum, flirts with 1.3200

GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its positive bias on Thursday, retreating toward the 1.3200 region in response to the pick in the buying interest around the Greenback. That said, Cable remains under scrutiny as cautious market sentiment keeps investors focused on the US-Iran conflict and political effervescence in the UK.

EUR/USD trims gains, challenges 1.1400

EUR/USD now gives away part of its earlier advance, receding toward the 1.1400 contention zone on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pair’s recovery comes amid extra losses in the US Dollar, at the time when while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and sentiment surrounding global technology stocks.

Gold remains bid and close to $4,100

Gold accelerates its recovery and approaches the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, adding to Thursday’s advance. However, expectations for a hawkish Fed remain steady and keep the yellow metal’s potential upside contained.

Week ahead: NFP report to challenge Dollar strength and the hawkish Fed
The end of the Middle East conflict and the steps made so far towards securing a comprehensive deal over the next five weeks – with oil prices dropping aggressively but maintaining a small risk premium – has allowed investors to focus elsewhere. Contrary to expectations, the greenback has been the main protagonist lately.
Week ahead – NFP report to challenge Dollar strength and the hawkish Fed

Dollar strength dominates markets, as the hawkish Fed overshadows geopolitics and lower oil prices. NFP week could drive September Fed hike expectations and boost market volatility. The euro lacks fresh bullish catalysts, all eyes on the preliminary inflation report and the ECB Forum.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.