USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bounces up from lows with bulls aiming for 158.65
- USD//JPY approaches 158.65 resistance after bouncing from 156.68 lows on Friday.
- A split BoJ committee and the unexpected Japanese current account deficit have punished the Yen on Monday.
- The US Dollar is trading in an ascending channel since late July's intervention.
The US Dollar has retraced previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with the USD/JPY pair returning above the 158.00 line, after bouncing up from Friday’s low, at 156.68. The pair has regained some momentum, and bulls are aiming at last week's highs, in the 158.65 area.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) summary of opinions, released earlier on Monday, revealed concerns about mounting inflation but also a split committee regarding the pace of upcoming rate hikes, which hurt investors' confidence in the Yen. Beyond that, the Japanese Current Account posted its first deficit in one-and-a-half years, adding weight to the Japanese Yen.
These figures have offset the negative impact on the US Dollar from the unexpected contraction in US Nonfarm Payrolls seen on Friday. Data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 23K decline in net employment in July, against market expectations of an 80K increase, and the previous two months' readings were revised sharply lower. These figures cooled hopes of near-term interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) even further and sent the USD tumbling across the board.
Technical Analysis: The Dollar trades within an ascending channel
The USD/JPY trades at 158.38, holding within an ascending channel from August 3 lows at 155.23. Momentum indicators show mild upside traction, with the Relative Strength Index (14) crossing above the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at modestly positive levels, altogether hinting at a stabilizing upside momentum within this short-term uptrend.
Bulls are looking at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 158.65, which capped rallies last week. Further gains are likely to test the channel top, now around 159.25. A confirmation above here would bring the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, at 160.64, and the July 31 highs, near 160.90, to the focus.
On the downside, the channel bottom, at 157.05, and Friday's low, near 156.70, are likely to provide significant support ahead of the mentioned August 3 low, at 155.23.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.41% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.08% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.38% | 0.06% | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.41% | -0.38% | -0.43% | -0.33% | -0.46% | -0.38% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.10% | 0.33% | -0.18% | 0.00% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.46% | 0.18% | 0.09% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.10% | 0.38% | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.10% | 0.33% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
