|

USD/JPY clings to the 115.00 threshold amid a risk-off market mood

  • The USD/JPY edges higher in the year’s last trading day, up some 0.03%.
  • A risk-off market mood put capped the downtrend of the USD/JPY.
  • USD/JPY Price Forecast: The upward bias to continue, a break above 115.20 would open the door for a test of the YTD high at 115.52. 

As of year-end looms, the USD/JPY extends its rally to three consecutive days, trading at 115.12 during the New York session at the time of writing. A risk-off market mood, as portrayed by US equity indices trading in the red, while the CAC 40 and FTSE 100, the only two European stock markets open, slide between 0.28% and 0.32%, each. 

In the meantime, US Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark note, edge lower one and a half basis points, down to 1.502%, a headwind for the USD/JPY. The US Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s value against a basket of six rivals, slides some 0.28%, sits at 95.70.

Thin liquidity conditions attributed to holidays in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand kept the USD/JPY within familiar levels. The lack of worldwide macroeconomic news, as investors book profits, put a lid on the USD/JPY, which in the last hour or so, retraced from monthly highs.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY hourly chart portrays the pair has an upward bias, even though it dipped to the confluence of the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the daily pivot point around 115.06.

To the upside, USD/JPY’s first resistance is the year-to-date high is the November 24 high at 115.52. A breach of that level would expose crucial resistance levels, like the 116.00, followed by the December 2016 swing lows at 118.65.

On the other hand, the first line of defense for USD bulls would be 115.00. A break of that level would be the December 29 cycle low at 114.67 and the 200-hour SMA at 114.60.

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price115.12
Today Daily Change0.04
Today Daily Change %0.03
Today daily open115.08
 
Trends
Daily SMA20113.97
Daily SMA50113.94
Daily SMA100112.41
Daily SMA200111.05
 
Levels
Previous Daily High115.21
Previous Daily Low114.94
Previous Weekly High114.51
Previous Weekly Low113.33
Previous Monthly High115.52
Previous Monthly Low112.53
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%115.1
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%115.04
Daily Pivot Point S1114.94
Daily Pivot Point S2114.8
Daily Pivot Point S3114.66
Daily Pivot Point R1115.21
Daily Pivot Point R2115.35
Daily Pivot Point R3115.49

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD looks inconclusive near 1.1420

EUR/USD trades in a tight range in the low 1.1400s on Tuesday, struggling to gain momentum amid an equally absence of clear direction in the US Dollar (USD). Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict is capping the pair’s upside, while traders avoid taking significant positions ahead of Thursday’s ECB gathering.

Gold shows signs of life; focus is back to $4,100

Gold gains ground on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s pessimism and advancing toward the $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP extends recovery as on-chain activity grows
Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
The Iranian war has again risen
The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.