- The index fades Monday’s strength to the 108.00 region.
- The appetite for the risk complex weighs on the dollar on Tuesday.
- Richmond Fed manufacturing gauge, Fedspeak next on tap in the docket.
Thew greenback loses some shine following Monday’s bull run to the proximity of the 108.00 neighbourhood when tracked by the USD Index (DXY).
USD Index looks to Fed speaker, risk trends
The index comes under pressure after three daily advances in a row sustained by hawkish remarks from Fed speakers, which somewhat alleviate the speculation around a potential pivot in the Fed’s policy.
The ongoing knee-jerk in the dollar comes amidst a small correction in US yields following the recent marked rebound, while renewed appetite for the riskier assets also puts the buck under scrutiny.
In the US data space, the only scheduled release will be the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index seconded by speeches by Cleveland Fed L.Mester (voter, hawk), Kansas City Fed E.George (voter, hawk) and St. Louis Fed J.Bullard (voter, hawk).
What to look for around USD
The dollar faltered just ahead of the 108.00 barrier at the beginning of the week, sparking a corrective move soon afterwards pari passu with the recovery in the risk-linked galaxy.
While hawkish Fedspeak maintains the Fed’s pivot narrative in the freezer, upcoming results in US fundamentals would likely play a key role in determining the chances of a slower pace of the Fed’s normalization process in the short term.
Key events in the US this week: MBA Mortgages Applications, Building Permits, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs, Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes (Wednesday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Prospects for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation of a recession in the next months. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China persistent trade conflict.
USD Index relevant levels
Now, the index is retreating 0.39% at 107.35 and the breakdown of 105.34 (monthly low November 15) would open the door to 105.17 (200-day SMA) and finally 104.63 (monthly low August 10). On the other hand, the next up barrier comes at 107.99 (weekly high November 21) followed by 109.19 (100-day SMA) and then 110.68 (55-day SMA).
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