USD: Haven bid challenged by hawkish G10 wall – DBS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

DBS Group Research economist Philip Weeargues that although risk aversion from the Iran conflict usually supports the Dollar, this time the USD’s haven appeal may prove short-lived. He points to a Fed pause versus G10 rate hikes and pressure on US Treasuries from rising fiscal concerns. The backdrop recalls last year’s credibility hit from Liberation Day tariffs.

Risk-off support offset by policy headwinds

"While risk aversion typically leads to a flight to the USD, this haven appeal may be short-lived."

"The USD faces a hawkish wall following last week’s central meetings, which pitted a series of G10 rate hikes against a Fed pause."

"Furthermore, US Treasury bonds are under pressure as fiscal concerns mount, driven by the Pentagon’s request for a substantial budget increase for the Iran conflict."

"This environment mirrors the credibility hit the USD sustained following last year’s Liberation Day tariffs, where the concurrent sell-off in US stocks and bonds underscored growing stagflation worries."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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