USD/CHF Price Forecast: False breakout at 0.8100 triggers pullback
- USD/CHF confirms a false breakout after failing above 0.8100.
- RSI remains bullish but shows signs of fading momentum.
- Break below 0.8000 exposes 50-day and 200-day SMA supports.
The USD/CHF pair recoils after reaching a five-day high of 0.8108 on Wednesday, edging down some 0.02% as risk appetite deteriorates due to US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of an end to the ceasefire, as Iran attacked ships on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8078, following a false breakout above 0.8100.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
After forming a ‘morning star’ at the beginning of the week and testing 0.8100, the USD/CHF pair is now retreating below that level. Nevertheless, bullish momentum remains intact, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but shows signs of fading.
For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF needs to clear the high of the day at 0.8108, followed by the July 1 peak at 0.8120. On further strength, the next area of interest would be 0.8200, followed by the June 4, 2025, daily high at 0.8250. Above this level lies 0.8300.
On the flip side, if USD/CHF tumbles below the 0.8000 psychological figure, it could exacerbate a move towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7934 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.7915. Below is the 0.7900 figure.
USD/CHF Price Chart - Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
