USD/CHF heading into the low end, aimed at 0.8850

The USD/CHF is softening its stance heading into the Friday close.
The US Dollar is seeing a mild broad-market sell-off to cap off the trading week.
Investors are increasing their bets that the Fed is done with rate hikes.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The USD/CHF is seeing a step down back into the week's lows near the 0.8860. The Swiss Franc (CHF) caught a soft bolstering from better-than-expected Swiss Industrial Production figures, and the Greenback (USD) is seeing bearish pressure as investors are leaning into bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is finally done with their rate hike cycle.

Swiss Industrial Production printed at 2% for the annualized third quarter, above the previous quarter's -0.7%, which was revised slightly higher from -0.8%.

Inflation and growth figures for the domestic US economy appear to be moderating at a quicker pace than markets initially anticipated, once more giving rise to the broader market narrative that the Fed is done with rate hikes and investors are now turning their bets towards when rate cuts will begin.

With Fed policymakers continuing to strike overly-cautious tones in public speaking engagements, market participants are adding extra weight to economic data releases on a case-by-case basis: every signal of deceleration sends market sentiment soaring as traders cheer moving closer to interest rate cuts, and every uptick drives market fears of "higher for longer".

In the meantime, the Fed's own rate expectations see benchmark interest rates going nowhere fast for the foreseeable future, and the first rate cut isn't expected until well into 2024.

USD/CHF Technical Outlook

The USD/CHF is trading into the week's low side near the 0.8860 level as sellers try to push the pair down into 0.8850 ahead of the Friday closing bell.

The Franc appreciated aggressively earlier in the week, taking the USD/CHF down from above the 0.9000 handle to trade into the latter week's consolidation range.

Daily candlesticks have the USD/CHF trading on the low side of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently grinding down below the 0.9000 key level.

Despite the pair's recent climb into the 0.9200 neighborhood, a long-term bullish trend couldn't be maintained and the pair is dropping into the low side, marking in a lower higher from November's early swing high into 0.9100.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/CHF Technical Levels

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.8865
Today Daily Change	-0.0026
Today Daily Change %	-0.29
Today daily open	0.8891

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.8986
Daily SMA50	0.9022
Daily SMA100	0.89
Daily SMA200	0.8994

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.89
Previous Daily Low	0.8855
Previous Weekly High	0.9046
Previous Weekly Low	0.8954
Previous Monthly High	0.9244
Previous Monthly Low	0.8888
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.8883
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.8872
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.8864
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.8836
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.8818
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.8909
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.8928
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.8955

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

GBP/USD pops to 1.3530, multi-week tops

GBP/USD now picks up pace and retests the 1.3530 zone, or four-week highs, in quite an auspicious beginning of the week. A modest rebound in the Greenback accompanies Cable’s uptick amid persistent uncertainty lingering over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD treads water around 1.1550

EUR/USD trades in a narrow range around 1.1550 of Monday. The pair’s inconcluisve price action comes as investors continue to assess Friday’s disappointing US jobs data in a context where renewed tensions in the Middle East lend decent support to the US Dollar.

Gold corrects from tops, holds on above $4,300

Gold recedes marginally on Monday, although it keeps the trade well above the $4,300 mark per troy ounce for now. In the meantime, the precious metal is seen closely following the Fed’s interest-rate outlook as well as developments in the Middle East.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP eye short-term recovery amid ETF inflows

Cryptocurrency prices are gaining traction on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $65,000, Ethereum (ETH) holding the near-term $1,900 support and Ripple (XRP) hovering above the critical $1.00 demand zone. The broad recovery comes amid capital inflows through US-listed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

US Payrolls miss – RBA on deck tomorrow

It would be remiss of me not to kick off this morning’s report with a rundown of last Friday’s US jobs report, which was a belter. Headline payrolls fell by 23,000, versus expectations of an 80,000 gain. The BLS noted that May was revised down by 66,000 (from 129,000) and June by 37,000 (from 57,000), resulting in combined May-June revisions of 103,000 lower than previous reports.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.