USD/CHF falls back below 0.77 as sellers look for a floor
- USD/CHF sank around 1% at its lowest on Monday.
- Swiss Franc bulls continue to push the pair back into 15-year lows.
USD/CHF is holding a firm downtrend on the daily chart, printing lower highs and lower lows since November 2025 while trading well below both the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7882 and the 200 EMA at 0.8125. The pair dropped sharply from the 0.8000 area in mid-January, falling through the 0.7800 handle to reach a low near 0.7604 before staging a corrective bounce. That recovery stalled around 0.7800, forming a cluster of resistance where the prior consolidation zone and the psychological round number converge. Price is now trading near 0.7683 after a strong bearish daily candle, suggesting sellers remain in control. The Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) on the daily timeframe reads 35/34, turning lower from the midline without reaching overbought territory, which points to fading bullish momentum within the broader downtrend.
On the 1-hour chart, the pair broke down aggressively from a sideways range between 0.7750 and 0.7790, slicing through the 50 and 200 EMAs (the 200 EMA sitting at 0.7757) and extending to a session low near 0.7660. The sell-off was impulsive, with minimal pullbacks and strong bearish candle bodies, signaling conviction behind the move. The Stochastic on the 1H is deeply oversold at 6.6/5.4, which could set up a short-term corrective bounce toward the broken support zone around 0.7750 to 0.7757, now acting as resistance. If the pair fails to reclaim that area, the next downside targets sit at the recent swing low of 0.7604 and the projection level near 0.7535. A recovery above 0.7792 would be needed to shift the near-term bias back to neutral.
USD/CHF daily chart
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Joshua Gibson
FXStreet
Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.
