USD/CAD slipping back beneath 1.3500 as surging oil prices boost CAD

The USD/CAD couldn't hold onto highs above 1.3540, falling back to end Wednesday flat.
The US Dollar is broadly higher across the markets, but the CAD is seeing additional support from bumping oil prices.
US & CAD GDP to land on Friday.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The USD/CAD kicked Wednesday off with a jump to 1.3543 as the US Dollar (USD) caught a broad-market bid on risk aversion and bumper US data, but soaring crude oil prices are sending the Loonie (CAD) higher and the USD/CAD is set to head into Thursday's market session trading on the low end of the 1.3450 handle.

US data continues to beat expectations, with US Durable Goods Orders for August printing at 0.2% versus the forecast -0.5%. Up next for the US data docket will be Thursday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). US GDP for the second quarter is seen holding steady at the previous print of 2.1%.

Friday will see Canadian GDP figures for July forecast to rebound from -0.2% to 0.1%, while the US side sees Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index numbers, which the median market forecasts are expecting to hold steady at 0.2% for the month of August.

The US Dollar eventually lost the tug-of-war with the oil-bolstered Loonie, even as hawkish Fed officials and an impending government shutdown prop up the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh highs.

Crude oil prices are leaping up the charts as supply constraints continue to squeeze barrel costs to 13-month highs, and the upside fossil pressure was enough to keep CAD on-balance to send the USD/CAD back to the 1.3500 handle.

Forex Today: Dollar is the only safe haven in town, Oil soars

USD/CAD technical outlook

The USD/CAD is getting pinned to the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on daily candles, and the pair is at risk of falling back to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) just north of 1.3450.

The pair is still up 3% from the last swing low into the 1.3100 handle.

On the hourly candlesticks, a continued backslide will see the pair testing the 200-hour SMA near 1.3480, with technical support coming from a rising trendline from last week's swing lows near 1.3430 and 1.3450.

USD/CAD daily chart

USD/CAD technical levels

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3498
Today Daily Change	-0.0019
Today Daily Change %	-0.14
Today daily open	1.3517

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3543
Daily SMA50	1.3453
Daily SMA100	1.3402
Daily SMA200	1.346

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3528
Previous Daily Low	1.3449
Previous Weekly High	1.3528
Previous Weekly Low	1.3379
Previous Monthly High	1.364
Previous Monthly Low	1.3184
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3498
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3479
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3468
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3419
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3389
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3547
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3577
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3626

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

AUD/USD sits at three-week highs above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA-speak

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and at three-week highs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks and inflation concerns underpin the pair. However, the upside appears capped as the US Dollar attracts some buyers amid looming US-Iran uncertainty.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold extends losing spree as US bond yields hold ground

Gold extends its losing streak for the fourth trading day on Wednesday, trading 0.2% lower to near $4,115 in the Asian session. The precious metal is under pressure as United States Treasury Yields on the back of significant gains in oil prices in past few weeks.

Ethereum bounces off $2,400 for a sixth day despite ETF outflows

Ethereum (ETH) bounced again near the $2,400 level on Tuesday, the sixth straight day, as its on-chain cost basis and key moving averages have stood as key support levels. The sub-$2,400 level has proven to be a strong support for the top altcoin over the past week amid macro pressures. Buyers have repeatedly stepped in to defend prices whenever it falls below the level.

UK CPI set to accelerate, paving the way for a BoE interest rate hike in November

The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics is expected to release September’s Consumer Price Index on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT. These figures will be accompanied by the Producer Price Index and the Retail Sales report.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.