USD/CAD Price Forecast: Pulling back within a downtrend

USD/CAD is undergoing a correction within an established downtrend.
The RSI is oversold and if it exits the zone it could indicate a higher correction is likely unfolding.

Joaquin Monfort FXStreet

USD/CAD is pulling back whilst unfolding a down leg within a long-term range bound market. Both the medium and short-term trends are bearish and given “the trend is your friend” the odds favor more downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is in the oversold zone, however, and the pair is pulling back. If the RSI exits oversold and re-enters the neutral territory (on a 4-hour closing basis) it would provide a buy signal and indicate an extended correction higher. Such a correction is likely to return to the trendline before rolling over.

USD/CAD 4-hour Chart

Once the pull back ends the downtrend is likely to take over again, pushing the pair lower. Added bearish confirmation would come from a break below 1.3441.

The next bearish target is situated at 1.3380 – the swing lows of October 2023 and January 2024. This is followed by the bottom of the range at 1.3222.

A close above 1.3520 and the trendline for the move down in August would bring into doubt the bearish bias and could indicate early signs of a reversal. However, a break above 1.3593 would give a surer sign of a reversal.

Author

Joaquin Monfort

FXStreet

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold defends 200-day SMA, rises toward $4,500

Gold is attempting a tepid recovery toward $4,500 on Thursday, as renewed optimism in the Mideast geopolitical front calms market nerves. This cautious optimism across Asian markets weighs on Oil prices, and diminishes the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, helping Gold stage a decent comeback from the weekly low of $4,424.

Hyperliquid: ETF demand, capital rotation fuel HYPE rally as Bitcoin melts

Hyperliquid price sustains an upward trend near its all-time high of $75.76 on Thursday after posting 80% gains in May, while Bitcoin (BTC) retraces below $65,000, triggering a market-wide panic.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.