US real GDP to expand by 15% in Q3 – TDS

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Following the second-quarter US GDP report, which showed a contraction of 32.9%, TD Securities analysts said that they still expect the real GDP in the US to expand by 15% on a yearly basis in the third quarter.

Key quotes

"Monthly data showed significant improvement in May and June after a plunge in April, so that is arithmetically positive for the Q3 starting point. Meanwhile, the downtrend in jobless claims appears to have at least stalled. Claims were 1.43m in the latest week, following 1.42mn in the prior week and 1.31mn two weeks earlier."

"We believe the rise over the last two weeks has been exaggerated by the multiplicative seasonal adjustment process (nsa claims fell to 1.21mn from 1.38mn in the latest week), but the data are likely to add to concerns in markets about the potential for a double dip. Also, continuing claims rose to 17.0mn from 16.2mn in the latest week. (The nsa figure rose to 16.9mn from 16.3mn.)."

"We continue to forecast a +15% q/q AR for real GDP in Q3, although that is down from 18% two weeks ago and it assumes significant slowing on a monthly basis relative to May and June. We have +5% for Q4, but that will depend significantly on COVID developments in coming months."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

EUR/USD holds above 1.1800 after German sentiment data

EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.1800 on Monday after the data from Germany highlighted a modest improvement in business sentiment in February. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stays under pressure amid growing unceratinty surrounding the US trade regime, allowing the pair to hold its ground.

GBP/USD rises toward 1.3550 as tariff confusion slams USD

GBP/USD extends the advance toward 1.3550 on Monday. The US Dollar faces intense selling pressure as tariff uncertainty lingers following US President Trump's latest announcement. Traders will take more cues from the broader market sentiment and central bank talks.

Gold climbs above $5,100 on broad USD weakness

Gold sticks to its bullish bias near the monthly above $5,100 on Monday. Renewed trade-war fears, along with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, turn out to be key factors that underpin the safe-haven precious metal and validate the constructive outlook.

Cardano braces for impact as US tariff storm brews

Cardano is down 4% at press time on Monday, entering its third consecutive day of decline. Bearish bias in Cardano’s derivatives market positional buildup aligns with rising pressure on the broader cryptocurrencymarket amid US President Donald Trump's reassessment of global tariffs and domestic conflict with the US Supreme Court.

Supreme Court nixes tariffs, Trump teases 15% global tariff

On February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global tariffs under IEEPA authority were unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the framework. However, the relief was short-lived. Within hours, Trump floated a 15% blanket tariff under an alternative legal authority.

Top Crypto Losers: Zcash, Pump.fun, and LayerZero extended losses as Bitcoin loses $65,000

The cryptocurrency market starts the week in panic mode, with altcoins Zcash, Pump.fun, and LayerZero. Bitcoin falls below $65,000 as the US President Donald Trump regroups amid renewed trade policy risks.