US real GDP to expand by 15% in Q3 – TDS

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Following the second-quarter US GDP report, which showed a contraction of 32.9%, TD Securities analysts said that they still expect the real GDP in the US to expand by 15% on a yearly basis in the third quarter.

Key quotes

"Monthly data showed significant improvement in May and June after a plunge in April, so that is arithmetically positive for the Q3 starting point. Meanwhile, the downtrend in jobless claims appears to have at least stalled. Claims were 1.43m in the latest week, following 1.42mn in the prior week and 1.31mn two weeks earlier."

"We believe the rise over the last two weeks has been exaggerated by the multiplicative seasonal adjustment process (nsa claims fell to 1.21mn from 1.38mn in the latest week), but the data are likely to add to concerns in markets about the potential for a double dip. Also, continuing claims rose to 17.0mn from 16.2mn in the latest week. (The nsa figure rose to 16.9mn from 16.3mn.)."

"We continue to forecast a +15% q/q AR for real GDP in Q3, although that is down from 18% two weeks ago and it assumes significant slowing on a monthly basis relative to May and June. We have +5% for Q4, but that will depend significantly on COVID developments in coming months."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

EUR/USD trims gains, back below 1.1800

EUR/USD now loses some upside momentum, returning to the area below the 1.1800 support as the Greenback manages to regain some composure following the SCOTUS-led pullback earlier in the session.

GBP/USD off highs, recedes to the sub-1.3500 area

Following earlier highs north of 1.3500 the figure, GBP/USD now faces some renewed downside pressure, revisiting the 1.3490 zone as the US Dollar manages to regain some upside impulse in the latter part of the NA session on Friday.

Gold climbs to weekly tops, approaches $5,100/oz

Gold keeps the bid tone well in place at the end of the week, now hitting fresh weekly highs and retargeting the key $5,100 mark per troy ounce. The move higher in the yellow metal comes in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and modest losses in the US Dollar.