Analysts at Standard Chartered suggest that US tariffs on USD 60bn of Chinese imports could cause 5% fall in China’s exports to US and 0.15% drop in GDP.
Key Quotes
“Announcements from both the US and China have triggered fresh concerns about a potential trade war. On 22 March, US President Trump signed a memo that could impose a 25% tariff on up to USD 60bn of imports from China (but only after a 60-day consultation period). In response, China’s Commerce Ministry said “China will take all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests”. The development is in line with our long-held argument that US-China trade frictions will intensify this year, though a full-blown trade war remains a tail risk.
- We maintain our China GDP growth forecast of 6.5% given strong Q1 growth, uncertainty on US remedies
- China’s economic dependency on the US fell from 6.3% of GDP in 2006 to about 3.0% in 2017
- US economic dependency on China rose steadily from 0.1% of GDP to 0.7% during 2000-14
- US GDP could fall 0.2% if China retaliates, banning US food, transport imports; 0.9% if all imports banned.”
“In short, we estimate that the 25% tariffs on USD 60bn of Chinese imports could result in a 5% fall in China’s total exports to the US. Given that US demand accounts for about 3.0% of China’s GDP, higher US tariffs, if implemented, could lead to a 0.15% drop in China’s GDP. We maintain our 2018 China GDP growth forecast of 6.5% in light of the economy’s strong Q1 performance and given uncertainty about the eventual trade remedies by the US.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0700 after US data
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 in the American session on Wednesday. The data from the US showed a strong increase in Durable Goods Orders, supporting the USD and making it difficult for the pair to gain traction.
USD/JPY refreshes 34-year high, attacks 155.00 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is renewing a multi-decade high, closing in on 155.00. Traders turn cautious on heightened risks of Japan's FX intervention. Broad US Dollar rebound aids the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold stays in consolidation above $2,300
Gold finds it difficult to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to turn north.
Worldcoin looks set for comeback despite Nvidia’s 22% crash Premium
Worldcoin price is in a better position than last week's and shows signs of a potential comeback. This development occurs amid the sharp decline in the valuation of the popular GPU manufacturer Nvidia.
Three fundamentals for the week: US GDP, BoJ and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge stand out Premium
While it is hard to predict when geopolitical news erupts, the level of tension is lower – allowing for key data to have its say. This week's US figures are set to shape the Federal Reserve's decision next week – and the Bank of Japan may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.