US Elections: The electoral college and swing states – HSBC

Research Team at HSBC, suggests that the US presidential election is not decided by the popular vote at the national level, but by the state-by-state results in the Electoral College.

Key Quotes

“There are 538 electoral votes apportioned among the 50 states (one for each Representative and Senator).

In some states, a majority of voters traditionally vote for one major party over the other. Generally, in these states, voter preference polls show that one candidate has an overwhelming lead over the other. These states are often referred to as “safe” states in the analysis of votes in the Electoral College. The focus of the election campaign will be on the so-called “swing states” where the electorate has either swung back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates over the years, or where current polls indicate a close race between the candidates.

The states of Ohio and Florida deserve special attention. The last 10 presidential elections were split evenly between the two major parties, with each side winning five of the 10 elections. Voters in Ohio chose the winning candidate each time. In Florida, voters picked the winner in nine of the 10 elections.

Poll averages show that Clinton leads in most of the bigger swing states. However, since our last Election Update on 13 September, poll averages show Clinton’s lead narrowing in Florida and Ohio. Meanwhile, Trump expanded his lead in Georgia. The Electoral College race is getting tighter.”