US Dollar closes a losing week as markets grow confident about a dovish Fed
- DXY Index declines as investors favor riskier assets following Powell's dovish speech.
- Powell hinted that the economic outlook is coming closer to the Fed’s goal.
- Markets have already priced in a September cut.
The US Dollar (USD), measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), resumed its decline on Friday, falling from below the 101.00 level due to a shift toward riskier investments. This shift was influenced by the dovish tone of US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
Despite concerns about decelerating job growth, Fed officials, including Powell, maintain positive views on the US labor market. Data suggests that the US economy continues to expand above trend, suggesting that the market may be overestimating the need for rapid monetary easing.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar softens after Powell’s speech
- Chair Powell stated that inflation has significantly declined, bringing the economy closer to the Fed's 2% target.
- Powell observed a noticeable cooling in the labor market, suggesting the economy is no longer overheated.
- Fed Chair also noted that the balance of risks has shifted, with reduced inflation risks but heightened concerns about employment.
- Chair Powell stated that future rate cuts will be determined by data, economic outlook and the balance of risks.
- Market participants have increased bets on a Fed rate cut in response to Powell's comments, with a September cut now being fully priced in.
DXY technical outlook: Bearish bias is clearer, correction possible
The technical outlook of the DXY Index remains bearish. However, buyers have been attempting to initiate an uptrend. The index remains below its 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), indicating a bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 30, indicating continued and over-extended selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with red bars.
That being said, as indicators show oversold signals, there is potential for a correction to the upside.
Support Levels: 101.00, 100.50, 100.30
Resistance Levels: 101.50, 101.80, 102.20.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Author
Patricio Martín
FXStreet
Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.
