US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY fails near 100-SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence around 99.75
- DXY attracts some sellers on Monday, though the downside potential seems limited.
- Rising September rate hike bets and geopolitical risks act as a tailwind for the buck.
- A move beyond the 99.70-99.75 confluence is needed to back the bullish scenario.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts some sellers at the start of a new week and erodes a part of Friday's strong gains to a two-week high. The index remains depressed through the first half of the European session and currently trades just above mid-99.00s, down nearly 0.15% for the day.
The downside for the DXY, however, seems limited in the wake of rising bets for an interest rate hike in September, bolstered by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Apart from this, a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback.
From a technical perspective, the recent goodish recovery from the lowest level since mid-May, touched earlier this month, faced rejection near the 99.70-99.75 confluence. The said area comprises the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August decline, which should act as a key pivotal point.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 47, hinting at stabilizing momentum. Indicators, however, are not yet strong enough to overcome the nearby overhead structure, warranting some caution before placing fresh bullish bets on the DXY.
That said, any further slide might now find initial support at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 99.28, ahead of a more important structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor near 98.55. On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around the 100-day SMA at 99.71 and the 38.2% retracement at 99.73, with further barriers at the 50% level at 100.10.
A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and lift the DXY to the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 100.46 en route to the 78.6% level at 100.98 and the cycle high area near 101.64.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
DXY daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.24% | -0.02% | 0.10% | -0.03% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.10% | 0.06% | -0.15% | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.00% | 0.08% | 0.03% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.23% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.21% | 0.13% | 0.03% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.08% | -0.33% | -0.13% | -0.09% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.03% | -0.23% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.19% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
