- DXY index slips below 103.00 as US Producer Price Index figures disappoint.
- US economic growth continues to trend upwards, suggesting markets may be overestimating aggressive easing requirements.
- CPI is now in focus for a clearer inflation outlook.
On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD), measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), showed a mild decline falling under the 103.00 level. This drop followed disappointing Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, which fell short of analysts' estimates.
Based on the entire economic data, the US economy continues to achieve growth above the trend. This suggests that market participants may be overestimating the need for aggressive monetary easing as the Federal Reserve (Fed) may request more data before cutting.
Daily digest market movers: Mild decline follows underwhelming PPI figures
- The release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US showed a YoY rise of 2.2% in July, less than the market expectation of 2.3%.
- The annually adjusted core PPI also rose by 2.4%, missing analysts' estimated increase of 2.7%.
- On a monthly scale, the PPI saw a 0.1% rise, while the core PPI remained unmoved.
- As for now, A 50-basis-point cut is possible but will entirely depend on the data, with current odds at around 55%. The market is still fully expecting 100 basis points of easing by the end of the year and a total of 175-200 basis points of trimming over the next 12 months.
- This rate path seems improbable unless the US economy enters a severe recession.
DXY technical outlook: Bearish trends continue amid weak buying efforts
There is no significant change in the technical outlook for DXY, bearing in mind the moderate selling pressure. The momentum-based Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stable below the 50 mark, indicative of a sustained selling approach. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to graph negative values as the red bars level off, demonstrating continued bearish activity despite flat market movement on Tuesday.
The Index position rests beneath the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), pointing to a predominantly bearish trend.
Support Levels: 102.80, 102.50, 102.20
Resistance Levels: 103.00,103.50, 104.00
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD climbs above 1.1650 area on improving risk mood
EUR/USD extends its daily rally and trades above 1.1650 in the American session on Friday. The sharp decline seen in the 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations component of the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index weighs on the US Dollar and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD rises above 1.3450 on USD weakness
GBP/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades above 1.3450 on Friday after struggling to find direction on Thursday. The positive shift seen in market mood and the pullback seen in US consumer inflation expectations hurt the US Dollar and support the pair heading into the weekend.
Gold extends daily recovery beyond $3,350
Gold gains traction on Friday and clings to daily gains above $3,350. Renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness and retreating US Treasury bond yields allow XAU/USD to edge higher, while the upbeat market mood limits the pair's upside.
Bitcoin nears all-time high, Ethereum eyes $4,000, Ripple sets new record
Bitcoin price is trading above $120,000 on Friday, inching closer to its all-time high of $123,218. Ethereum price has surged by over 20% so far this week, with bulls aiming for the $4,000 level next. Ripple has taken center stage, reaching a new record high of $3.66 on Friday, signaling renewed demand and optimism across the market.
China’s first-half growth remains on track, though activity data signals caution
China's second-quarter GDP beat forecasts again with a 5.2% year-on-year growth, driven by strong trade and industrial production. Yet sharper-than-expected slowdowns in fixed-asset investment and retail sales and falling property prices are a concern.
Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.