US: CPI pace below the FED range – TDS


The United States of America is set to release some relatively important data at 13:30 GMT regarding personal income and spending, while the Chicago PMI is expected at 14:45 GMT. Economists at TD Securities forecast the data. 

Key quotes

“CPI and PPI data point to an above-trend 0.3% m/m rise in the core PCE index, with the y/y change likely rising to 1.8% from 1.6%. (Core prices rose just 0.04% m/m in January 2019.)”

“We’re also looking for the PCE report to show fairly solid increases in personal income and spending at 0.5% and 0.4% m/m, respectively.” 

“We expect the advance indicators release to show a widening of the trade deficit to USD 69.5bn in Jan from 68.3bn before, while we expect UMich's consumer sentiment index to remain largely unchanged in the survey's final release for Feb.” 

“We look for the Chicago PMI to rebound to 50 in Feb following Jan's drop to 42.9 — a four-year low.”

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