US: Core inflation surprised consensus expectations – TD Securities

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Analysts at TD Securities note that the US headline inflation came in line with expectations in July at 0.3% m/m (0.335% unrounded), which lifted the annual measure higher to 1.8% y/y (TD: 1.8%; consensus: 1.7%).

Key Quotes

“Core inflation surprised consensus expectations for a second straight month at 0.3% m/m (0.291% unrounded) and 2.2% y/y — its highest level in eight months. Strength in the monthly print was broad-based, with both the core services and core goods segments posting firm increases in July. The latter, at 0.2% m/m, continues to reflect the ongoing rebound in some of the items the kept core goods prices depressed in recent months.”

“Despite the firmer July core CPI print, we do not see the reading fundamentally changing the calculus for the Fed. We continue to expect the Fed to deliver cuts at its September and October FOMC meetings, with global growth, manufacturing, and trade remaining key concerns.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

EUR/USD flat lines below 1.1900; divergent Fed-ECB expectations offer support

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1835-1.1830 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1875 area, remaining nearly unchanged for the day and staying within striking distance of an over one-week high, reached on Tuesday, amid mixed cues.

GBP/USD slips heading into the Thursday trading window

The Pound Sterling pulled back from four-year highs on Wednesday, weighed down by a combination of Bank of England dovishness and UK political uncertainty, even as the US Dollar weakened on soft labor market revisions.

Gold holds losses near $5,050 despite renewed USD selling

Gold price trades in negative territory near $5,050 in Thursday's Asian session. The precious metal faces headwinds from stronger-than-expected US employment data, even as the US Dollar sees a bout of fresh selling. All eyes now remain on the next batch of US labor statistics.

Crypto trades through a confidence reset

The cryptocurrency market is navigating a liquidity-driven reset rather than a narrative-driven rally. Bitcoin, Ethereum and major altcoins remain under pressure even as new exchange-traded fund filings continue and selected inflow days appear on the tape.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.