US: Cooling Jun CPI adds to “more good data” for Fed’s confidence to cut rates – UOB Group

US Jun CPI surprised with a -0.1% m/m fall, the first decline since the start of the pandemic while core inflation rose by 0.1% the slowest m/m pace since Jan 2021, UOB Group FX analyst Alvin Liew note.

No change to the view for two 25 bps cuts in 2024

“The latest price outturn was seen as a further step in the right direction after the multiple upside price surprises in 1Q. Housing costs rose at a softer pace while back-to-back gasoline price falls led the energy index lower. Core services inflation also softened for the 2nd month in a row.”

“2024 US Inflation Outlook: We still expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.5% in 2024 (down from the 4.1% recorded in 2023), while core inflation may also ease but at an average of 2.8% in 2024, still a significant moderation from 4.8% in 2023, but above the Fed’s 2% objective.”

“We think the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep its current Fed Funds Target Rate (FFTR) steady at 5.25-5.50% for the upcoming Jul FOMC, and it is now seen more likely to start to ease monetary policy in Sep. We reiterate our base case where we factor 50 bps of rate cuts for the remainder of 2024, i.e. two 25-bps cuts, one each in Sep 24 and Dec 24.”